Utah Avalanche
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU14 · 10 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 5, 01:30 PM
St. Joseph Catholic High School, Grass Field ↗ · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Avalanche | El Paso Locomotive B12/13 |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-6 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 8.5 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D L L | L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Arizona Soccer Club | — |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 1–10 at Utah Athletic |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.47 | -2.38 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | +2.79 |
Common opponents: Utah Athletic — we 1–5; they 1–10.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 1 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 concede 8.5/game; worst result 1–10 at Utah Athletic.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at La Roca FC, 0–5 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL, 0–6 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 19% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Grass field
Venue listed as "Grass Field" at St. Joseph Catholic High School.If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the El Paso Locomotive B12/13 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche – El Paso Locomotive B12/13) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.18 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.91 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 53%
- 8th 37%
- 9th 8%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Athletic | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.93) | 50 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 2.45 (+1.45) | 2nd (2.61) | 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | NUU Avalanche | 2.00 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.08) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | La Roca FC | 1.64 (+0.64) | 6th (1.48) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 1.30 (+0.30) | 5th (1.53) | 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
36 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche to El Paso Locomotive B12/13 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.07 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 5 01:30 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -16 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.65 | 1.06 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 01:30 PM |
NM Rapids SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.75 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 09:00 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.33 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 09:00 AM |
NM Rapids SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 9th · 0-0-2 · GD -16 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.33 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 03:30 PM |
Utah Athletic 1st · 12-0-0 · GD +67 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.04 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 03:30 PM |
La Roca FC 4th · 6-0-5 · GD -8 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 03:30 PM |
NUU Avalanche 3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +21 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.34 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
NUU Avalanche 3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Hansen Family Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.22 | 0.89 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 9 | +67 | 36 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.70 | -0.50 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 at El Paso Locomotive B12/13 · Sun Dec 13 at NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 52 | 9 | +43 | 27 | 2.45 | WWLWW | +0.09 | -1.47 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B12/13 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NUU Avalanche | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 14 | +21 | 22 | 2.00 | WLWWD | -0.40 | -0.25 | 99% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 at NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 13 at El Paso Locomotive B12/13 · Sat Feb 20 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 | 1.64 | WWLLW | -0.13 | -0.09 | 15% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive B12/13 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 13 | 1.30 | LWWLD | +0.83 | -1.15 | 31% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Avalanche | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 10 | 1.00 | LLDWL | -0.14 | -0.07 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B12/13 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC · Sat Feb 6 at El Paso Locomotive B12/13 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | CCV STARS | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 48 | -35 | 4 | 0.40 | LLDLL | +0.81 | -0.66 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.22 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | El Paso Locomotive B12/13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +2.79 | -0.29 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 43 | -43 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.59 | -0.64 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.