El Paso Locomotive B12/13

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St. Joseph Catholic High School, Grass Field ↗ · grass far trip

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.5 against · 1.17 expected points)

Common opponents: Utah Athletic — we 1–10; they 1–5.

• They struggle to score
  Utah Avalanche average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 3 of 10.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–7 at NUU Avalanche.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 33%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Grass field
  Venue listed as "Grass Field" at St. Joseph Catholic High School.

  If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:30 PM at St. Joseph Catholic High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  NM Rapids SC sit 8th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above NM Rapids SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (El Paso Locomotive B12/13 – Utah Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 1%
6. 6th 3%
7. 7th 35%
8. 8th 40%
9. 9th 21%
10. 10th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.68 PPG if we win out).