TableChase Clubs

NM Rapids SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU14 · 10 teams · NM Rapids SC (all teams)

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8th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
52% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM

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NM Rapids SC
8th · 0.00 PPG
at
La Roca FC
4th · 1.64 PPG

La Roca FC Utah County Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.57 expected points)

Season so farNM Rapids SCLa Roca FC
Position8th4th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-06-0-5
Points per game0.001.64
Goals for / game0.01.8
Goals against / game0.02.5
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)—W L L W W
Biggest win—6–2 vs CCV STARS
Worst loss—1–8 vs Utah Athletic
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00-0.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00-0.13

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 46% / draw 19% / loss 35%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at La Roca FC Utah County Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    CCV STARS sit 7th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above CCV STARS on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NM Rapids SC – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2 8th— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd▲ up 6 2nd▲ up 6 2nd▲ up 6
Draw
1.00 PPG
6th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 2 8th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
52% top 4
48% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 45%
  5. 5th 23%
  6. 6th 22%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Utah Athletic 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.93) Win next game
2 Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 2.45 (+2.45) 2nd (2.61) A point next game
3 NUU Avalanche 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.08) A point next game
4 La Roca FC 1.64 (+1.64) 6th (1.48) A point next game
5 Arizona Arsenal 1.30 (+1.30) 5th (1.53) A point next game
6 Utah Avalanche 1.00 (+1.00) 7th (0.89) A point next game
7 CCV STARS 0.40 (+0.40) 9th (0.60) Already ahead

Position over the season

13 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 3rd hardest of 10

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Dec 5
12:00 PM
La Roca FC
4th · 6-0-5 · GD -8
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.57 1.57 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
01:30 PM
Utah Avalanche
6th · 3-1-6 · GD -20
Away far trip
St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.07 1.82 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM
NUU Avalanche
3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +21
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 1.48 Upside
Sun Dec 13
09:00 AM
Utah Athletic
1st · 12-0-0 · GD +67
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–5 0.16 1.15 Upside
Sat Feb 6
09:00 AM
La Roca FC
4th · 6-0-5 · GD -8
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 1.30 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Utah Avalanche
6th · 3-1-6 · GD -20
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 1.47 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
09:00 AM
Utah Avalanche
6th · 3-1-6 · GD -20
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.32 1.59 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
TBD
NUU Avalanche
3rd · 7-1-3 · GD +21
Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.57 1.46 Upside
Sun Feb 21
TBD
Utah Athletic
1st · 12-0-0 · GD +67
Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.09 1.31 Upside
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM
Arizona Soccer Club
10th · 0-0-11 · GD -43
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 1.46 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL
2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +43
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.31 1.35 Upside
Sat Mar 27
09:30 AM
El Paso Locomotive B12/13
9th · 0-0-2 · GD -16
Away far trip
Jefferson High School- 4700 Alameda Ave. El Paso,
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.30 1.43 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 4-1-5 · GD -9
Away far trip
Santos Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.43 1.43 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
CCV STARS
7th · 1-1-8 · GD -35
Away far trip
West Valley Events Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.33 1.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
El Paso Locomotive B12/13
9th · 0-0-2 · GD -16
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.54 1.57 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Arizona Soccer Club
10th · 0-0-11 · GD -43
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.68 1.64 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL
2nd · 9-0-2 · GD +43
Away
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–4 0.18 1.55 Upside
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
CCV STARS
7th · 1-1-8 · GD -35
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.56 1.61 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
11:15 AM
Arizona Arsenal
5th · 4-1-5 · GD -9
Home
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–2 1.78 1.62 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Utah Athletic 121200 769+67 363.00 WWWWW -0.70 -0.50 100% 1.0
2 Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 11902 529+43 272.45 WWLWW +0.09 -1.47 100% 2.0
3 NUU Avalanche 11713 3514+21 222.00 WLWWD -0.40 -0.25 100% 3.1
4 La Roca FC 11605 2028-8 181.64 WWLLW -0.13 -0.09 18% 5.3
5 Arizona Arsenal 10415 2332-9 131.30 LWWLD +0.83 -1.15 30% 5.0
6 Utah Avalanche 10316 1030-20 101.00 LLDWL -0.14 -0.07 0% 7.5
7 CCV STARS 10118 1348-35 40.40 LLDLL +0.81 -0.66 0% 8.7
8 NM Rapids SC 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.22 ——
9 El Paso Locomotive B12/13 2002 117-16 00.00 LL +2.79 -0.29 0% 7.8
10 Arizona Soccer Club 110011 043-43 00.00 LLLLL +0.59 -0.64 0% 10.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.