St Croix
ECNL Regional League Boys · Midwest BU13 · 8 teams · St. Croix (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 3–3 (expected goals 3.1 for, 3.2 against · 1.34 expected points)
| Season so far | St Croix | Rockford Raptors FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W | W W L W |
| Biggest win | 9–1 at Chicago Inter | 9–0 vs Indiana Elite FC |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 1–5 at Chicago Magic Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.07 | +1.73 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.15 | -1.40 |
Common opponents: Chicago Inter — we 9–1; they 9–1. Indiana Elite FC — we 3–1; they 9–0. Chicago Magic Soccer Club — we 1–5; they 1–5. FC Wisconsin — we 4–0; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Rockford Raptors FC score 5.5/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
MN Thunder Academy sit 4th on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.A point moves us above MN Thunder Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rockford Raptors FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St Croix – Rockford Raptors FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–3 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 15%
- 4th 26%
- 5th 51%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.75) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 2.25 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.06) | A point next game |
| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 2.25 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.90) | A point next game |
| 4 | MN Thunder Academy | 2.25 (+0.00) | 4th (1.90) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link St Croix to Rockford Raptors FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.52 · 3rd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
3–3 | 1.34 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.10 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.80 | 1.75 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 0.98 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -30 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
6–1 | 2.86 | 1.79 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Chicago Inter 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -41 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
7–1 | 2.93 | 1.90 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
MN Thunder Academy 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Winter Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
2–3 | 0.98 | 1.82 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +31 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 7th · 0-2-5 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.36 | 1.75 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
MN Thunder Academy 4th · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.72 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | +31 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.23 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Apr 4 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Apr 24 vs St Croix See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -1.37 | +0.35 | 92% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 at St Croix · Sat Mar 13 at MN Thunder Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -1.40 | +0.39 | 81% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at St Croix · Sun Mar 14 at MN Thunder Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | MN Thunder Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -1.14 | +0.44 | 79% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Mar 20 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St Croix | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -1.15 | +0.52 | 49% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Mar 20 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Indiana Elite FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 38 | -30 | 4 | 0.57 | LLDLL | +0.65 | +0.58 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at St Croix · Sun Apr 4 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Apr 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Wisconsin | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 | 0.29 | LDDLL | +0.33 | +0.35 | 0% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Apr 4 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Apr 24 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 49 | -41 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.77 | +0.72 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Apr 4 at St Croix · Sat Apr 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.