MN Thunder Academy
ECNL Regional League Boys · Midwest BU13 · 8 teams · Minnesota Thunder Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, 12:30 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.4 against · 1.37 expected points)
| Season so far | MN Thunder Academy | Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W | W W W L |
| Biggest win | 8–1 at Chicago Inter | 9–0 vs Indiana Elite FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 0–3 at Chicago Magic Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.52 | +1.92 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.14 | -1.37 |
Common opponents: Indiana Elite FC — we 5–0; they 9–0. Chicago Inter — we 8–1; they 7–0. FC Wisconsin — we 3–0; they 3–0. Chicago Magic Soccer Club — we 1–3; they 0–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Eclipse Select Soccer Club score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Eclipse Select Soccer Club concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Eclipse Select Soccer Club have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
Rockford Raptors FC sit 3rd on 2.25 PPG; we are on 2.25.A point moves us above Rockford Raptors FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MN Thunder Academy – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.40 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.80 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 21%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 30%
- 5th 21%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 3.00 (+0.75) | 1st (2.75) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 2.25 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.06) | A point next game |
| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 2.25 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.90) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link MN Thunder Academy to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.44 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 13 12:30 PM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home Winter Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.37 | 2.07 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 08:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home Winter Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
3–2 | 1.63 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 10:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.28 | 1.90 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–2 | 1.06 | 1.79 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 08:00 AM |
Chicago Inter 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -41 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.95 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 08:00 AM |
Indiana Elite FC 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -30 |
Home Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–1 | 2.90 | 2.02 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
St Croix 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home Winter Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
3–2 | 1.86 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 7th · 0-2-5 · GD -14 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.48 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +31 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 1.93 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
St Croix 5th · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.52 | 1.90 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | +31 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.23 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Apr 4 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Apr 24 vs St Croix See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 9 | 2.25 | LWWW | -1.37 | +0.35 | 92% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 at St Croix · Sat Mar 13 at MN Thunder Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Rockford Raptors FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -1.40 | +0.39 | 81% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at St Croix · Sun Mar 14 at MN Thunder Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | MN Thunder Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -1.14 | +0.44 | 79% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Mar 14 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Mar 20 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St Croix | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | WWLW | -1.15 | +0.52 | 49% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Mar 20 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Indiana Elite FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 38 | -30 | 4 | 0.57 | LLDLL | +0.65 | +0.58 | 0% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at St Croix · Sun Apr 4 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Apr 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Wisconsin | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 | 0.29 | LDDLL | +0.33 | +0.35 | 0% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Apr 4 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Apr 24 vs MN Thunder Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 49 | -41 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.77 | +0.72 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Apr 3 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Apr 4 at St Croix · Sat Apr 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.