Folsom Lake Surf
ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU16 · 7 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 13 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.1 against · 1.20 expected points)
| Season so far | Folsom Lake Surf | Placer United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-4 | 3-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L L | L L W L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley | 8–1 vs Mustang Soccer -RL |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs San Juan SC | 0–2 at Davis Legacy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.57 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | +0.12 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–2 at Placer United (L)
Common opponents: Mustang Soccer -RL — we 2–0, 0–2; they 8–1. Davis Legacy — we 1–2; they 0–1, 0–2. San Juan SC — we 1–3; they 3–0. Association FC — we 3–2; they 1–3. Club America Nido Aguila | Valley — we 3–0; they 3–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Placer United score 2.4/game — well above the league's 1.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Mustang Soccer -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 33%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Placer United sit 3rd on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.29.A point moves us above Placer United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Placer United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – Placer United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 25%
- 4th 42%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davis Legacy | 3.00 (+1.71) | 1st (2.64) | 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Mustang Soccer -RL | 1.86 (+0.57) | 3rd (1.59) | 19 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 3 | Placer United | 1.43 (+0.14) | 2nd (1.67) | A point next game |
How the results connect
37 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to Placer United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.01 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Placer United 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.20 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Davis Legacy 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–1 | 0.52 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:30 AM |
Association FC 6th · 2-1-4 · GD -7 |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 1.26 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Club America Nido Aguila | Valley 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -6 |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–0 | 1.92 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 03:00 PM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
San Juan SC 5th · 2-1-4 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.64 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
1974 Newark FC |
Home Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 03:00 PM |
El Camino FC Salinas |
Home Econome Family Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.38 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.11 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Association FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Mustang Soccer -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 | 1.86 | DWLWW | -0.25 | +0.22 | 97% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Placer United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 10 | 1.43 | WLWLL | +0.12 | -0.21 | 96% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Oct 31 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 at Mustang Soccer -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWWL | -0.01 | -0.01 | 77% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | San Juan SC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLWL | -0.01 | +0.14 | 13% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Placer United · Sat Nov 7 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Nov 14 vs Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Association FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLLW | +0.13 | +0.06 | 14% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Club America Nido Aguila | Valley | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLWL | +0.01 | +0.15 | 3% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Davis Legacy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.