Club America Nido Aguila | Valley
ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU16 · 7 teams · Valley Surf | America (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
River Islands Soccer Complex, Field #1 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.8 against · 1.00 expected points)
| Season so far | Club America Nido Aguila | Valley | Mustang Soccer -RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-4 | 4-1-2 |
| Points per game | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | W W L W D |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at San Juan SC | 5–2 vs Association FC |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Folsom Lake Surf | 1–8 at Placer United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.62 | +0.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.01 | -0.25 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–0 at Mustang Soccer -RL (D)
Common opponents: Placer United — we 3–3; they 1–8. Association FC — we 1–3; they 5–2, 3–0. Folsom Lake Surf — we 0–3; they 0–2, 2–0. San Juan SC — we 0–1, 2–0; they 3–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 at Mustang Soccer -RL, 0–3 vs Folsom Lake Surf, 0–1 vs San Juan SC, 0–2 vs Davis Legacy.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Association FC sit 6th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.71.A win moves us above Association FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mustang Soccer -RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Club America Nido Aguila | Valley – Mustang Soccer -RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.75 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.75 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.63 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 25%
- 7th 62%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.93 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davis Legacy | 3.00 (+2.29) | 1st (2.64) | 40 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Mustang Soccer -RL | 1.86 (+1.15) | 3rd (1.59) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 3 | Placer United | 1.43 (+0.72) | 2nd (1.67) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | Folsom Lake Surf | 1.29 (+0.58) | 4th (1.38) | 15 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 5 | San Juan SC | 1.00 (+0.29) | 6th (1.02) | Win next game |
| 6 | Association FC | 1.00 (+0.29) | 5th (1.05) | Win next game |
How the results connect
38 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Club America Nido Aguila | Valley to Mustang Soccer -RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.15 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Mustang Soccer -RL 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 04:00 PM |
Association FC 6th · 2-1-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.10 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Davis Legacy 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–2 | 0.36 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 4th · 3-0-4 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
0–1 | 0.85 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
El Camino FC Salinas |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
Marin FC |
Home River Islands Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.07 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Placer United 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 0.81 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.11 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Association FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Mustang Soccer -RL | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 | 1.86 | DWLWW | -0.25 | +0.22 | 96% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Placer United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 10 | 1.43 | WLWLL | +0.12 | -0.21 | 96% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sat Oct 31 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 at Mustang Soccer -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWWL | -0.01 | -0.01 | 77% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Placer United · Sat Oct 31 at Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 vs Association FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | San Juan SC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLWL | -0.01 | +0.14 | 13% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Placer United · Sat Nov 7 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Nov 14 vs Davis Legacy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Association FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLLW | +0.13 | +0.06 | 15% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Davis Legacy · Sat Oct 31 vs Club America Nido Aguila | Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Club America Nido Aguila | Valley | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLWL | +0.01 | +0.15 | 3% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mustang Soccer -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Association FC · Sat Nov 7 at Davis Legacy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.