Ohio Galaxies FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 10 teams · Ohio Galaxies FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
Athletes in Action Sports Complex, Field 3 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.1 against · 2.08 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Galaxies FC | Louisville City Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 4-2-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | W W D L W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Cincinnati Elite FC | 8–0 vs Ohio Elite SA |
| Worst loss | — | 2–5 at Blast FC Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.50 | +1.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.08 | -0.06 |
Common opponents: Ohio Premier — we 3–2; they 2–1. Columbus Force — we 4–3; they 3–2. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 9–0; they 6–0. Ohio Elite SA — we 7–1; they 8–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 15% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Louisville City Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Galaxies FC – Louisville City Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 52%
- 2nd 42%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
22 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Galaxies FC to Louisville City Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 5th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +13 |
Home Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.08 | 2.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 02:15 PM |
Lexington Sporting Club 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.57 | 2.81 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
3–2 | 1.74 | 2.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Elite FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.66 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -22 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.69 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Ohio Premier 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.66 | 2.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Columbus Force 7th · 2-1-3 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.06 | 2.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-1-6 · GD -37 |
Home Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 12:30 PM |
Ohio Elite SA 6th · 3-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
5–1 | 2.80 | 2.60 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 2.55 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
Lexington Sporting Club 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.36 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.40 | 2.47 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 02:00 PM |
Elite FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 2.46 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.08 | +0.03 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Blast FC Academy | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.27 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 14 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.06 | -0.11 | 89% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWWL | +0.44 | -0.41 | 85% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Elite FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWDLW | -0.27 | +0.17 | 2% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWWL | -0.14 | +0.29 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Columbus Force | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLLW | +0.45 | -0.30 | 23% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lexington Sporting Club | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.12 | +0.02 | 1% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 26 | -22 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.04 | +0.43 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 41 | -37 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.24 | +0.53 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.