Cincinnati Elite FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 10 teams · Cincinnati Elite FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
OP Training Facility, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–6 (expected goals 0.7 for, 6.9 against · 0.02 expected points)
| Season so far | Cincinnati Elite FC | Ohio Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-7 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.13 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 4.1 |
| Goals against / game | 5.3 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 6 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L D | W L W W L |
| Biggest win | — | 9–1 vs Ohio Elite SA |
| Worst loss | 0–9 vs Ohio Galaxies FC | 1–3 vs Blast FC Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.28 | +1.94 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.20 | +0.14 |
Common opponents: Louisville City Academy — we 0–6; they 1–2. Lexington Sporting Club — we 0–7; they 4–1. Ohio Galaxies FC — we 0–9; they 2–3. FC Pride Elite — we 3–3; they 6–0. Ohio Elite SA — we 1–4; they 9–1. Blast FC Academy — we 0–7; they 1–3. Elite FC — we 0–5; they 6–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Ohio Premier score 4.1/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–6 at Louisville City Academy, 0–7 at Lexington Sporting Club, 0–9 vs Ohio Galaxies FC, 0–7 at Blast FC Academy, 0–5 at Elite FC, 0–1 at Columbus Force.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 0%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at OP Training Facility.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
FC Pride Elite sit 9th on 0.17 PPG; we are on 0.13.A point moves us above FC Pride Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cincinnati Elite FC – Ohio Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.11 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
| Win 0.44 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 10th— holds |
| Draw 0.22 PPG |
9th▲ up 1 | 9th▲ up 1 | 10th— holds |
| Loss 0.11 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–6 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th 34%
- 10th 66%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 1.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blast FC Academy | 3.00 (+2.87) | 1st (2.45) | 53 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 2.67 (+2.54) | 2nd (2.31) | 48 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 1.88 (+1.75) | 4th (1.95) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Ohio Premier | 1.71 (+1.58) | 3rd (2.04) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Columbus Force | 1.43 (+1.30) | 5th (1.55) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | Elite FC | 1.33 (+1.20) | 7th (1.28) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 7 | Lexington Sporting Club | 1.25 (+1.12) | 6th (1.34) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 1.13 (+1.00) | 8th (0.95) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 0.17 (+0.04) | 9th (0.27) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
41 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Cincinnati Elite FC to Ohio Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.55 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Ohio Premier 4th · 4-0-3 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
OP Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.02 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 4-3-1 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.09 | 0.11 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Lexington Sporting Club 7th · 3-1-4 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.22 | 0.12 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 8th · 3-0-5 · GD -17 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.65 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
Ohio Galaxies FC 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -28 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.05 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Elite FC 6th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–3 | 0.36 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Columbus Force 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.18 | 0.21 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Ohio Premier 4th · 4-0-3 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.04 | 0.20 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blast FC Academy | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.16 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | -0.70 | +0.00 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy · Sun Mar 7 vs Elite FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 15 | 1.88 | LDWWD | +0.34 | -0.41 | 91% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Mar 14 at Ohio Elite SA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Ohio Premier | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 12 | 1.71 | LWWLW | +0.14 | -0.40 | 95% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 6 vs Columbus Force See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Columbus Force | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 10 | 1.43 | DLLWW | -0.14 | +0.02 | 12% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Elite FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWDLW | -0.16 | +0.12 | 1% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Lexington Sporting Club | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 10 | 1.25 | LLLLW | -0.29 | +0.22 | 2% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Mar 14 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 9 | 1.13 | LWWLL | +0.16 | +0.22 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Mar 14 vs Louisville City Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 32 | -28 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | +0.08 | +0.52 | 0% | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Blast FC Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 42 | -38 | 1 | 0.13 | DLLLL | +0.20 | +0.55 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Mar 14 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.