Blast FC Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 10 teams · Blast FC Soccer Academy (all teams)

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2nd

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+18 goal diff · 25–7

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6

-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Thu Oct 29, 05:30 PM

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Blast FC Academy
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Elite FC
5th · 1.33 PPG

Shelly Park, field B ↗

67% 16% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.3 against · 2.18 expected points)

Season so far	Blast FC Academy	Elite FC
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	2-2-2
Points per game	3.00	1.33
Goals for / game	4.2	1.7
Goals against / game	1.2	1.8
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W L D W L
Biggest win	7–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC	5–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC
Worst loss	—	0–6 at Ohio Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.87	-0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.27	-0.27

Common opponents: Ohio Premier — we 3–1; they 0–6. Columbus Force — we 4–3; they 1–1. Louisville City Academy — we 5–2; they 2–2. Lexington Sporting Club — we 4–0; they 2–1. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 7–0; they 5–0. Ohio Elite SA — we 2–1; they 0–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 16% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at Shelly Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Ohio Galaxies FC sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.
A win moves us above Ohio Galaxies FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Thursday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Blast FC Academy – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

47% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.6 average finish

1st 47%
2nd 45%
3rd 7%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Galaxies FC	3.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.46)	Win next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Blast FC Academy to Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 8th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Thu Oct 29 05:30 PM	Elite FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1	Away Shelly Park	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.88	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Ohio Galaxies FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23	Away	●●●●○ Tough	31%	2–3	1.09	2.66	Upside
Sun Mar 7 TBD	FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -22	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	5–1	2.88	2.68	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Elite FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	3–1	2.41	2.65	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 09:00 AM	Louisville City Academy 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +13	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–2	1.58	2.56	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 09:00 AM	Lexington Sporting Club 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -1	Away far trip Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.53	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Ohio Premier 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +11	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.81	2.47	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Columbus Force 7th · 2-1-3 · GD +5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	3–1	2.17	2.45	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-1-6 · GD -37	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	6–0	2.94	2.48	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM	Ohio Elite SA 6th · 3-0-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Ohio Elite Training Center	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.51	2.48	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Ohio Galaxies FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23	Home	●●●●○ Tough	42%	2–2	1.42	2.42	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-4 · GD -22	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–0	2.93	2.45	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Galaxies FC

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-1.08

+0.03

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	9–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	3–2	52%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Elite FC (5th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Columbus Force (7th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	8–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	5–1	92%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	3–2	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat May 8	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun May 9	at	Elite FC (5th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Blast FC Academy

+18

3.00

WWWWW

-0.27

-0.17

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbus Force (7th)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	3–1

Next: Thu Oct 29 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Oct 29	at	Elite FC (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–3	31%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	5–1	95%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Elite FC (5th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–2	42%
·	Sun May 9	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	6–0	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisville City Academy

+13

2.00

WLDWW

-0.06

-0.11

89%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	3–2
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Elite FC (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	2–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	6–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	5–0	95%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Elite FC (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Columbus Force (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–3	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	5–1	95%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier

+11

1.50

WLWWL

+0.44

-0.41

85%

3.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Elite FC (5th)	6–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Columbus Force (7th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	3–1	59%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Elite FC (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 8	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun May 9	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	5–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC

-1

1.33

LWDLW

-0.27

+0.17

6.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	0–6
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force (7th)	1–1

Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	1–3	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA

-9

1.29

WLWWL

-0.14

+0.29

7.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	4–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	1–7
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Columbus Force (7th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Elite FC (5th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	1–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force

1.17

LDLLW

+0.45

-0.30

23%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	3–4
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Elite FC (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	5–1	96%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	1–3	24%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	5–1	92%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Elite FC (5th)	2–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–3	18%
·	Sat May 8	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun May 9	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	3–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club

-1

1.00

WLLLL

+0.12

+0.02

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Elite FC (5th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Elite FC (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Columbus Force (7th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun May 16	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite

-22

0.20

LLLDL

+0.04

+0.43

9.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	0–6
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Elite FC (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Columbus Force (7th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC (10th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	1–5	2%
·	Sat May 8	at	Elite FC (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun May 9	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	0–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC

-37

0.14

LDLLL

+0.24

+0.53

9.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Elite FC (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–4
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Columbus Force (7th)	1–5	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Premier (4th)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Louisville City Academy (3rd)	0–5	2%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club (8th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Pride Elite (9th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Blast FC Academy (2nd)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Elite FC (5th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Columbus Force (7th)	1–5	3%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Ohio Premier (4th)	0–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.