FC Pride Elite
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU13 · 10 teams · FC Pride (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM
Pride Performance Center (Turf), Field 1 ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.2 against · 0.53 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Pride Elite | Lexington Sporting Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-4 | 2-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 5.2 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L L L | L L L L W |
| Biggest win | — | 7–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC |
| Worst loss | 0–6 vs Columbus Force | 0–4 at Blast FC Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.67 | -0.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.04 | +0.12 |
Common opponents: Columbus Force — we 0–6; they 1–3. Ohio Premier — we 0–6; they 1–4. Ohio Elite SA — we 1–5; they 2–0. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 3–3; they 7–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 vs Columbus Force, 0–6 vs Ohio Premier, 0–6 vs Ohio Galaxies FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 13%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
Lexington Sporting Club have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Pride Elite – Lexington Sporting Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.17 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.17 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th 1%
- 9th 78%
- 10th 22%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 3.00 (+2.80) | 1st (2.46) | 53 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Blast FC Academy | 3.00 (+2.80) | 2nd (2.45) | 53 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 2.00 (+1.80) | 3rd (1.94) | 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 4 | Ohio Premier | 1.50 (+1.30) | 4th (1.90) | 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
| 5 | Elite FC | 1.33 (+1.13) | 6th (1.26) | 23 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | Ohio Elite SA | 1.29 (+1.09) | 8th (1.06) | 23 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 7 | Columbus Force | 1.17 (+0.97) | 5th (1.58) | 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 8 | Lexington Sporting Club | 1.00 (+0.80) | 7th (1.18) | 17 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
22 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link FC Pride Elite to Lexington Sporting Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.43 · 2nd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM |
Lexington Sporting Club 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home Pride Performance Center (Turf) · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +13 |
Home Pride Performance Center (Turf) · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.16 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Elite FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.56 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Ohio Galaxies FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +23 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.02 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 04:00 PM |
Ohio Premier 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
OP Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Columbus Force 7th · 2-1-3 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.14 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 6th · 3-0-4 · GD -9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 10th · 0-1-6 · GD -37 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 0.38 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Lexington Sporting Club 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.35 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 03:00 PM |
Elite FC 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Shelly Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.36 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Blast FC Academy 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.05 | 0.34 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 6 | +23 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.08 | +0.03 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisville City Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Blast FC Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Blast FC Academy | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 7 | +18 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.27 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Mar 7 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 14 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.06 | -0.11 | 89% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWWL | +0.44 | -0.41 | 83% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Oct 25 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Nov 1 at Columbus Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Elite FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | LWDLW | -0.27 | +0.17 | 2% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Blast FC Academy · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWWL | -0.14 | +0.29 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Columbus Force | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLLW | +0.45 | -0.30 | 25% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Premier See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lexington Sporting Club | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 7 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.12 | +0.02 | 1% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 26 | -22 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.04 | +0.43 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lexington Sporting Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 41 | -37 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.24 | +0.53 | 0% | 9.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 13 vs Louisville City Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.