Sporting SA JAX
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU15 · 10 teams · Sporting SA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.4 for, 0.9 against · 1.74 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting SA JAX | Sporting SA TLH |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-5-0 | 5-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.78 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D D W D D | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Space Coast United | 3–1 vs Space Coast United |
| Worst loss | — | 1–5 vs South Orlando SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.32 | -0.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.18 | -0.00 |
Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush — we 2–1; they 2–1. Florida Premier FC Black — we 1–1, 1–1; they 2–2, 3–2. Space Coast United — we 2–0; they 3–1. South Orlando SC — we 1–1; they 1–5. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 0–0; they 0–2. Florida Celtic — we 1–0; they 3–1. Florida Premier FC Gold — we 0–0; they 4–2.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Fishhawk Premier FC, 0–0 at Florida Premier FC Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 27% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Sporting SA TLH sit 3rd on 1.78 PPG; we are on 1.75.A point moves us above Sporting SA TLH on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting SA JAX – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.89 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.89 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.56 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 21%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 9%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 2.38 (+0.63) | 1st (2.31) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | South Orlando SC | 1.86 (+0.11) | 2nd (1.88) | A point next game |
| 3 | Sporting SA TLH | 1.78 (+0.03) | 5th (1.58) | A point next game |
How the results connect
56 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting SA JAX to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
Sporting SA TLH 3rd · 5-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–0 | 1.74 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 02:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -7 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
1–0 | 2.05 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 3rd · 5-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Florida Celtic 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 7th · 2-3-3 · GD +3 |
Home Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–0 | 1.54 | 1.72 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
FC America 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +20 |
Home Veterans Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 1.01 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 10:00 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -27 |
Home Veterans Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.55 | 1.73 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
Space Coast United 9th · 2-1-6 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.84 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
FC America 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.83 | 1.65 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWDL | -0.20 | -0.13 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | South Orlando SC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 13 | 1.86 | WDLWW | -0.07 | -0.14 | 88% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting SA TLH | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 | 1.78 | WWLWW | -0.00 | +0.02 | 39% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting SA JAX | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 | 1.75 | DDWDD | -0.18 | +0.12 | 55% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Feb 20 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 13 | 1.63 | WLLWW | +0.02 | -0.13 | 70% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Premier FC Black | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 12 | 1.50 | DLWLD | +0.16 | -0.15 | 32% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 9 | 1.13 | LDWDD | -0.05 | -0.00 | 16% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 7 | 1.00 | LWLDL | -0.08 | +0.22 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Space Coast United | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWLL | +0.11 | +0.09 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Florida Kraze Krush | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 | -27 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLD | +0.27 | +0.26 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 at FC America See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.