FC America

ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU15 · 10 teams · FC America (all teams)

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1st

6-1-1 record · 8 played

2.38 points per game

+20 goal diff · 27–7

WWWDLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.2

-0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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FC America
1st · 2.38 PPG

Sporting SA TLH
3rd · 1.78 PPG

Florida State University Rec Sportsplex, Field B ↗ far trip

70% 15% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.3 against · 2.24 expected points)

Season so far	FC America	Sporting SA TLH
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-1	5-1-3
Points per game	2.38	1.78
Goals for / game	3.4	2.0
Goals against / game	0.9	2.1
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	L D W W W	W W L W W
Biggest win	8–0 at Florida Kraze Krush	3–1 vs Space Coast United
Worst loss	2–3 vs Florida Celtic	1–5 vs South Orlando SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.65	-0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.20	-0.00

Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 3–0 vs Sporting SA TLH (W)

Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush — we 8–0; they 2–1. Florida Premier FC Gold — we 3–2; they 4–2. Florida Premier FC Black — we 5–0; they 2–2, 3–2. South Orlando SC — we 2–1; they 1–5. Space Coast United — we 3–0; they 3–1. Fishhawk Premier FC — we 1–1; they 0–2. Florida Celtic — we 2–3; they 3–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 70% / draw 15% / loss 15%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Florida State University Rec Sportsplex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC America – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.44 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.44 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.22 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.11 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

88% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.2 average finish

1st 88%
2nd 9%
3rd 2%
4th 1%
5th <1%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

44 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC America to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

28 favour us

3 even

13 favour them

+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 7th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Sporting SA TLH 3rd · 5-1-3 · GD -1	Away far trip Florida State University Rec Sportsplex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.24	2.36	Swing game
Sun Feb 21 12:30 PM	Florida Kraze Krush 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -27	Home SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	5–0	2.94	2.42	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 02:00 PM	Space Coast United 9th · 2-1-6 · GD -10	Home SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.67	2.44	Bank it
Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM	South Orlando SC 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +10	Home SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.10	2.41	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM	Florida Premier FC Gold 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -7	Home SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.71	2.44	Bank it
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	Florida Premier FC Black 6th · 3-3-2 · GD +2	Home SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.33	2.43	Bank it
Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM	Sporting SA JAX 4th · 3-5-0 · GD +4	Away far trip Veterans Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–0	1.70	2.38	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM	Florida Celtic 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6	Away far trip Belcher Road Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.91	2.35	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM	Fishhawk Premier FC 7th · 2-3-3 · GD +3	Away far trip Fishhawk Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.98	2.33	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM	Sporting SA JAX 4th · 3-5-0 · GD +4	Home SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	1–0	1.90	2.31	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC America

+20

2.38

WWWDL

-0.20

-0.13

100%

1.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Space Coast United (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	8–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–0	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Orlando SC

+10

1.86

WDLWW

-0.07

-0.14

89%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC America (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Space Coast United (9th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC America (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	3–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA TLH

-1

1.78

WWLWW

-0.00

+0.02

37%

4.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	FC America (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC America (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Space Coast United (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX

1.75

DDWDD

-0.18

+0.12

55%

4.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Feb 20 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC America (1st)	0–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Space Coast United (9th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC America (1st)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Celtic

1.63

WLLWW

+0.02

-0.13

70%

3.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC America (1st)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Space Coast United (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	6–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC America (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	4–0	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC Black

1.50

DLWLD

+0.16

-0.15

32%

5.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC America (1st)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Space Coast United (9th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	FC America (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fishhawk Premier FC

1.13

LDWDD

-0.05

-0.00

17%

6.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC America (1st)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Space Coast United (9th)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	2–0	63%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC America (1st)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC Gold

-7

1.00

LWLDL

-0.08

+0.22

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	2–4
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC America (1st)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Space Coast United (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC America (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Space Coast United

-10

0.78

LLWLL

+0.11

+0.09

8.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC America (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC America (1st)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Florida Kraze Krush (10th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–1	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush

-27

0.13

LLLLD

+0.27

+0.26

10.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Florida Celtic (5th)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	South Orlando SC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Space Coast United (9th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC America (1st)	0–8
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 at FC America See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sporting SA TLH (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	FC America (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	South Orlando SC (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Space Coast United (9th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Florida Premier FC Black (6th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Florida Premier FC Gold (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sporting SA JAX (4th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Fishhawk Premier FC (7th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Florida Celtic (5th)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.