South Orlando SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU15 · 10 teams · South Orlando SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:45 PM
Young Pine Community Park, Field 3 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.3 for, 1.5 against · 2.61 expected points)
| Season so far | South Orlando SC | Florida Premier FC Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-2 | 2-1-5 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W L D | L L D L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Florida Kraze Krush | 4–1 vs Florida Kraze Krush |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs Florida Celtic | 0–5 vs Fishhawk Premier FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.14 | -0.95 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.04 | -0.16 |
Common opponents: Fishhawk Premier FC — we 3–2; they 0–5. Sporting SA TLH — we 5–1; they 2–4. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–1; they 0–0. FC America — we 1–2; they 2–3. Florida Kraze Krush — we 7–0; they 4–1. Space Coast United — we 3–0; they 2–1, 2–4. Florida Premier FC Black — we 5–2; they 0–3.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Florida Premier FC Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Orlando SC – Florida Premier FC Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.11 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.11 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 1.89 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.78 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 14%
- 2nd 58%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 7%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 2.38 (+0.38) | 1st (2.30) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
60 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link South Orlando SC to Florida Premier FC Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.20 · 9th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 01:45 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 9th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.61 | 2.07 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 08:00 AM |
Space Coast United 8th · 3-1-6 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -27 |
Away far trip
Central Winds |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
FC America 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 2.04 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Florida Celtic 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Belcher Road Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.48 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 7th · 2-3-3 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–1 | 1.62 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 9th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
3–1 | 2.39 | 2.00 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Black 6th · 3-3-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–2 | 1.89 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX 4th · 3-5-0 · GD +4 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:30 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 3rd · 5-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 1.98 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWDL | -0.19 | -0.13 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | South Orlando SC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 16 | 2.00 | DLWWW | -0.04 | -0.20 | 97% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United · Sat Mar 6 at Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting SA TLH | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 | 1.78 | WWLWW | -0.03 | +0.05 | 39% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting SA JAX | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 | 1.75 | DDWDD | -0.21 | +0.14 | 58% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Feb 20 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 13 | 1.63 | WLLWW | +0.04 | -0.15 | 74% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Premier FC Black | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 | 1.33 | LWLDL | +0.28 | -0.25 | 15% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United · Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 9 | 1.13 | LDWDD | -0.02 | -0.02 | 18% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Space Coast United | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 | 1.00 | LWLLW | -0.03 | +0.20 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC · Sat Mar 6 at FC America See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDLL | -0.16 | +0.33 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic · Sun Nov 1 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Florida Kraze Krush | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 | -27 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLD | +0.30 | +0.23 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 at FC America See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.