Florida Premier FC Black
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU15 · 10 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Young Pine Community Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.8 against · 0.87 expected points)
| Season so far | Florida Premier FC Black | South Orlando SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-2 | 4-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.86 |
| Goals for / game | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W L D | W W L D W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Space Coast United | 7–0 vs Florida Kraze Krush |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs FC America | 2–6 vs Florida Celtic |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.19 | +0.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.16 | -0.04 |
Common opponents: Space Coast United — we 3–0; they 3–0. Florida Celtic — we 3–1; they 2–6. Sporting SA TLH — we 2–2, 2–3; they 5–1. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–1, 1–1; they 1–1. FC America — we 0–5; they 1–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
South Orlando SC score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs FC America.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Young Pine Community Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Florida Celtic sit 5th on 1.63 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Florida Celtic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Orlando SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC Black – South Orlando SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.33 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.44 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 23%
- 6th 24%
- 7th 20%
- 8th 2%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 2.38 (+0.88) | 1st (2.30) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | South Orlando SC | 1.86 (+0.36) | 2nd (1.88) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | Sporting SA TLH | 1.78 (+0.28) | 5th (1.58) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 4 | Sporting SA JAX | 1.75 (+0.25) | 4th (1.65) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 5 | Florida Celtic | 1.63 (+0.13) | 3rd (1.72) | A point next game |
How the results connect
49 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC Black to South Orlando SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 19 03:00 PM no score posted |
Florida Kraze Krush 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -27 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
3–0 | 2.70 | 1.63 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Space Coast United 8th · 3-1-6 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.73 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 7th · 2-3-3 · GD +3 |
Away Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Florida Celtic 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Belcher Road Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.03 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 10:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 9th · 2-1-5 · GD -9 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 11:30 AM |
Florida Kraze Krush 10th · 0-1-7 · GD -27 |
Away far trip
Shane Kelly Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–0 | 2.55 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
FC America 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.53 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 7th · 2-3-3 · GD +3 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.16 | 1.52 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWDL | -0.19 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | South Orlando SC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 13 | 1.86 | WDLWW | -0.04 | -0.15 | 88% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting SA TLH | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 16 | 1.78 | WWLWW | +0.00 | +0.03 | 41% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting SA JAX | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 | 1.75 | DDWDD | -0.17 | +0.12 | 54% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Feb 20 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 13 | 1.63 | WLLWW | +0.04 | -0.14 | 70% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Premier FC Black | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 12 | 1.50 | DLWLD | +0.16 | -0.15 | 31% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 9 | 1.13 | LDWDD | -0.04 | +0.00 | 16% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Space Coast United | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 | 1.00 | LWLLW | -0.03 | +0.21 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC · Sat Mar 6 at FC America See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 | 0.88 | WLDLL | -0.14 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic · Sun Nov 1 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Florida Kraze Krush | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 | -27 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLD | +0.28 | +0.26 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 at FC America See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.