Wellington SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU13 · 10 teams · Wellington SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.5 against · 1.40 expected points)
| Season so far | Wellington SC | Doral Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-3 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L W W | L D W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Athletic Club Florida | 4–1 at Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 0–2 at Strikers Miami FC | 2–3 vs Fort Lauderdale United FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.40 | +0.72 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | +0.21 |
Common opponents: Cape Coral SA — we 3–0; they 4–1. SWFL PREMIER FC — we 2–0; they 4–2. Fort Lauderdale United FC — we 2–1; they 2–3. Parkland Soccer Club — we 1–2; they 0–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Strikers Miami FC, 0–2 at AC Florida Tropical.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Strikers Miami FC sit 4th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.71.A point moves us above Strikers Miami FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Doral Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wellington SC – Doral Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.63 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 35%
- 5th 35%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 2.57 (+0.86) | 1st (2.45) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 2 | Parkland Soccer Club | 2.13 (+0.42) | 2nd (2.15) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Doral Soccer Club | 2.00 (+0.29) | 3rd (1.94) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | Strikers Miami FC | 1.75 (+0.04) | 5th (1.66) | A point next game |
How the results connect
26 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Wellington SC to Doral Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 4th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Doral Soccer Club 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Village Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 09:00 AM |
Doral Soccer Club 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Morgan Levy Park Doral |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.62 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 02:30 PM |
Davie United SC 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Bamford Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–0 | 1.89 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Fort Lauderdale United FC 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Miami Dolphins Training Facility @ NOVA Southeaste |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.65 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Strikers Miami FC 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home Village Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida 10th · 0-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
North Community Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.44 | 1.63 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 6th · 3-0-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.63 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 03:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 1.66 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 10:00 AM |
AC Florida Tropical 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -8 |
Home Village Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 10:00 AM |
Davie United SC 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -6 |
Home Village Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
1–0 | 2.11 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 11:30 AM |
Parkland Soccer Club 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Terramar Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.80 | 1.67 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fort Lauderdale United FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | -0.17 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Nov 21 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sat Feb 27 vs Wellington SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Parkland Soccer Club | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 17 | 2.13 | WLWDD | -0.09 | -0.24 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sat Oct 24 at Davie United SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Florida Tropical See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Doral Soccer Club | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWDL | +0.21 | -0.26 | 90% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at AC Florida Tropical · Sun Nov 1 at Wellington SC · Sun Nov 22 at Strikers Miami FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Strikers Miami FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | LWWD | +0.07 | -0.14 | 51% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 30 at Parkland Soccer Club · Sat Sep 12 at AC Florida Tropical · Sat Nov 21 at Fort Lauderdale United FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Wellington SC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 | 1.71 | WWLLL | -0.12 | -0.08 | 54% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sun Feb 7 at Doral Soccer Club · Sat Feb 20 at Davie United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 | 1.29 | LLLWL | +0.39 | -0.28 | 6% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 18 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sun Oct 25 at Cape Coral SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida Tropical | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | 1.00 | DLLW | +0.65 | -0.13 | 1% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Strikers Miami FC · Sun Sep 13 vs Doral Soccer Club · Sat Oct 17 at Cape Coral SA See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Davie United SC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLW | -0.37 | +0.16 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Parkland Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Feb 6 at Doral Soccer Club See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 3 | 0.50 | WLLLL | +0.31 | -0.05 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs AC Florida Tropical · Sat Oct 24 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 vs SWFL PREMIER FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Athletic Club Florida | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.62 | -0.00 | 0% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at SWFL PREMIER FC · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA · Sat Dec 5 at AC Florida Tropical See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.