Northern Indiana Express
ECNL Regional League Boys · Chicago Metro BU14 · 7 teams · Elkhart County United (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:30 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.5 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Northern Indiana Express | FC 1974 Libertyville |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 3-1-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | W W D W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Force | 5–0 at Roadrunners SC |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.04 | +0.90 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.73 | -1.28 |
Common opponents: Force — we 9–0; they 2–0.
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
FC 1974 Libertyville concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 18% / loss 21%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC 1974 Libertyville game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Northern Indiana Express – FC 1974 Libertyville) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 84%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Northern Indiana Express to FC 1974 Libertyville through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 TBD no score posted |
Chicago City SC 5th · 0-3-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home Bontrager Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.66 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 TBD |
FC 1974 Libertyville 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.71 | 2.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Roadrunners SC 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -9 |
Home Bontrager Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.77 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Chicago City SC 5th · 0-3-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Bridgeview Turf Fields · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 2.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Bloomingdale Lightning 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.70 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Roadrunners SC 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -9 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.77 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Force 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -26 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.96 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Bloomingdale Lightning 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–2 | 2.03 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Roadrunners SC 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -9 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
4–1 | 2.63 | 2.46 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Force 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -26 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.98 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Chicago Soccer Academy 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Chicago City SC 5th · 0-3-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Chicago Soccer Academy 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
FC 1974 Libertyville 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.44 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Indiana Express | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.73 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Chicago City SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | -1.28 | +0.17 | 99% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Oct 31 vs Northern Indiana Express See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Bloomingdale Lightning | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWLD | -0.51 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Chicago Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago City SC · Sun Nov 8 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Chicago Soccer Academy | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWLWD | -0.11 | +0.11 | 36% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Nov 7 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Mar 6 at Chicago City SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chicago City SC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3 | 1.00 | DDD | +0.72 | -0.15 | 64% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Oct 31 vs Force · Sun Nov 1 at Bloomingdale Lightning See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Roadrunners SC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.88 | -0.12 | 1% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Force · Sun Nov 1 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Nov 7 at Force See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Force | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 26 | -26 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.08 | +0.41 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 vs Roadrunners SC · Sat Oct 31 at Chicago City SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.