FC 1974 Libertyville

ECNL Regional League Boys · Chicago Metro BU14 · 7 teams · Greater Libertyville Soccer Association (all teams)

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2nd

3-1-0 record · 4 played

2.50 points per game

+8 goal diff · 11–3

WDWWlast 4

98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-1.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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FC 1974 Libertyville
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Force
7th · 0.00 PPG

LTSC, Field 8 (11V11) ↗

96%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 5.0 for, 0.7 against · 2.90 expected points)

Season so far	FC 1974 Libertyville	Force
Position	2nd	7th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-0	0-0-4
Points per game	2.50	0.00
Goals for / game	2.8	0.0
Goals against / game	0.8	6.5
Clean sheets	3	0
Held scoreless	0	4
Form (recent first)	W W D W	L L L L
Biggest win	5–0 at Roadrunners SC	—
Worst loss	—	0–10 at Bloomingdale Lightning
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.90	-3.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.31	+1.13

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 2–0 at Force (W)

Game plan

They struggle to score
Force average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 4 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Force concede 6.5/game; worst result 0–10 at Bloomingdale Lightning.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 96% chance; likely score 4–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Force have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Force game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC 1974 Libertyville – Force) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.20 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st

98% top 4

2% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 6%
2nd 29%
3rd 55%
4th 9%
5th 2%
6th <1%
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.89 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Northern Indiana Express	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.45)	44 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link FC 1974 Libertyville to Force through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

0 favour them

+8.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.20 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Force 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -26	Home LTSC	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.90	2.58	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM	Northern Indiana Express 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14	Away far trip Bontrager Fields	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.83	2.29	Upside
Sat Oct 31 TBD	Northern Indiana Express 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.10	2.12	Upside
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Chicago Soccer Academy 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -2	Home LTSC	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.10	2.12	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Bloomingdale Lightning 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15	Home LTSC	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.50	2.05	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Bloomingdale Lightning 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–2	1.50	1.99	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Roadrunners SC 6th · 0-0-5 · GD -9	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.01	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Bloomingdale Lightning 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15	Away	●●●●○ Tough	33%	2–2	1.17	1.94	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Chicago City SC 5th · 0-2-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–1	1.72	1.92	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Chicago Soccer Academy 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -2	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.85	1.92	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	Force 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -26	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.90	1.98	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Chicago City SC 5th · 0-2-0 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.99	1.98	Swing game
Sun May 9 TBD	Chicago Soccer Academy 4th · 2-1-2 · GD -2	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.10	1.99	Swing game
Sat May 22 TBD	Northern Indiana Express 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +14	Away	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–2	0.83	1.93	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Northern Indiana Express

+14

3.00

WWW

-0.70

-0.26

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Force (7th)	9–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Chicago City SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Force (7th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	3–1	83%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Force (7th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat May 1	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun May 2	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC 1974 Libertyville

2.50

WDWW

-1.31

+0.20

98%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Force (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force · Sat Oct 31 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Oct 31 vs Northern Indiana Express See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force (7th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force (7th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat May 22	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bloomingdale Lightning

+15

2.40

WWWWL

-0.64

-0.08

100%

2.3

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Force (7th)	10–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Chicago City SC · Sun Oct 25 at Chicago Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago City SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–2	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–2	63%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	2–3	32%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	4–1	85%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	3–2	63%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Force (7th)	7–1	99%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (7th)	6–1	97%
·	Sat May 15	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	3–2	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago Soccer Academy

-2

1.40

LWLWD

-0.09

+0.12

41%

4.6

D	Sat Oct 10	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Force (7th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	1–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Nov 7 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Mar 6 at Chicago City SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Force (7th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat May 8	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun May 9	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat May 15	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago City SC

1.00

+0.32

-0.03

60%

4.3

D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Oct 24 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Oct 31 vs Force See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–3	26%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Force (7th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Force (7th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 8	at	Force (7th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 9	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	2–3	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Roadrunners SC

-9

0.00

LLLLL

+0.94

-0.12

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Force · Sun Nov 1 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Nov 7 at Force See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Force (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Force (7th)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun May 16	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Force (7th)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force

-26

0.00

LLLL

+1.13

+0.43

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	0–9
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	0–10
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 vs Roadrunners SC · Sat Oct 31 at Chicago City SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Chicago City SC (5th)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Roadrunners SC (6th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	1–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Northern Indiana Express (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 2	at	Chicago Soccer Academy (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Chicago City SC (5th)	1–3	6%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Bloomingdale Lightning (3rd)	1–6	1%
·	Sat May 22	at	Roadrunners SC (6th)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.38 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.