Lonestar ATX Red

ECNL Girls · Texas GU17 · 16 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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9th

4-0-4 record · 8 played

1.50 points per game

-1 goal diff · 12–13

WWLWLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.2

-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Lonestar ATX Red
9th · 1.50 PPG

FC Westlake
6th · 1.63 PPG

Burger Activity Center, Stadium Field 1 ↗ · turf?

43% 26% 31%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.2 against · 1.55 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX Red	FC Westlake
Position	9th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-4	4-1-3
Points per game	1.50	1.63
Goals for / game	1.5	1.1
Goals against / game	1.6	1.4
Clean sheets	3	3
Held scoreless	3	2
Form (recent first)	L W L W W	W L W W W
Biggest win	4–0 at West Side Alliance	3–1 at OK Energy FC
Worst loss	0–3 at Colorado Storm	0–4 at SOLAR SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.08	-0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.17	-0.17

Common opponents: Colorado Storm — we 0–3; they 1–4. Real Colorado National — we 0–2; they 0–1. OK Energy FC — we 2–0; they 3–1. West Side Alliance — we 4–0; they 1–1. Colorado Rush — we 1–0; they 2–0. Real Colorado Athletico — we 0–2; they 1–0. Dallas Texans — we 4–2; they 1–0. SOLAR SC — we 1–4; they 0–4.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Colorado Storm, 0–2 at Real Colorado National, 0–2 vs Real Colorado Athletico.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 26% / loss 31%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Challenge SC sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Challenge SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX Red – FC Westlake) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.44 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1
Win 1.67 PPG	6th▲ up 3	7th▲ up 2	7th▲ up 2
Draw 1.44 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1
Loss 1.33 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	10th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.2 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th <1%
5th 3%
6th 12%
7th 19%
8th 21%
9th 21%
10th 16%
11th 6%
12th 1%
13th <1%
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SOLAR SC	2.67 (+1.17)	1st (2.48)	29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Colorado Storm	2.45 (+0.95)	2nd (2.38)	25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Real Colorado National	2.25 (+0.75)	3rd (2.25)	22 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Sting Black	2.17 (+0.67)	4th (2.16)	21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5	AHFC	2.13 (+0.63)	5th (1.96)	20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6	FC Westlake	1.63 (+0.13)	8th (1.47)	A point next game
7	FC Dallas Youth	1.60 (+0.10)	6th (1.65)	A point next game
8	Challenge SC	1.50 (+0.00)	7th (1.47)	A point next game

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX Red to FC Westlake through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

6 even

11 favour them

-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 4th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	FC Westlake 6th · 4-1-3 · GD -2	Home Burger Activity Center · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.55	1.51	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	FC Dallas Youth 7th · 2-2-1 · GD +4	Home Burger Activity Center · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.20	1.47	Upside
Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM	Sting Royal 10th · 2-0-4 · GD +1	Home Burger Activity Center · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–1	1.33	1.46	Upside
Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM	AHFC 5th · 5-2-1 · GD +9	Home St. Andrew's Episcopal School	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–1	0.98	1.42	Upside
Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM	Challenge SC 8th · 4-0-4 · GD +6	Home St. Andrew's Episcopal School	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–2	1.28	1.41	Upside
Sat May 1 09:00 AM	Sting Black 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8	Home St. Andrew's Episcopal School	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.37	Upside
Sun May 2 02:00 PM	DKSC 16th · 0-0-6 · GD -23	Home St. Andrew's Episcopal School	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–0	2.55	1.45	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SOLAR SC

+17

2.67

WDWWW

-0.13

-0.19

97%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	6–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Real Colorado National (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC (16th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sun Nov 8 at Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Black See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Black (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting Royal (10th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	Challenge SC (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun May 2	at	AHFC (5th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm

+18

2.45

WWDWW

-0.03

-0.40

98%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	DKSC (16th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Black (4th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Royal (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Real Colorado National · Sat Jan 30 at West Side Alliance · Sun Jan 31 at OK Energy FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	2–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado National

+23

2.25

LLWLW

-0.13

-0.31

95%

2.9

W	Wed Oct 21	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	7–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Black (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC (16th)	6–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Royal (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at OK Energy FC · Sun Jan 31 at West Side Alliance See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Black

2.17

WWDLW

+0.53

-0.53

76%

3.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	7–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance · Sat Nov 21 at SOLAR SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Westlake (6th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat May 8	vs	DKSC (16th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC

2.13

LWDWW

-0.38

+0.22

27%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Black (4th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC (16th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Challenge SC · Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Royal · Sun Nov 22 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun May 2	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–1	23%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Westlake (6th)	1–0	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake

-2

1.63

WWWLW

-0.17

+0.07

8.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	DKSC (16th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–1	21%
·	Sat May 8	vs	AHFC (5th)	0–1	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth

1.60

DLDWW

+0.13

-0.20

6.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Real Colorado National (3rd)	3–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sun Oct 25 at Colorado Rush · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX Red See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	2–1	76%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Westlake (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Challenge SC (8th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sting Black (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	DKSC (16th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge SC

1.50

LLWWL

-0.38

+0.27

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	3–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	DKSC (16th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Black (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	6–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at AHFC · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sun Nov 22 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	AHFC (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Westlake (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX Red

-1

1.50

WWLWL

-0.17

+0.06

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	AHFC (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun May 2	vs	DKSC (16th)	3–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Royal

1.00

LLWWL

+0.32

-0.34

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting Black (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Colorado Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC (5th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Challenge SC (8th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	DKSC (16th)	3–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

-12

0.86

LWLLL

+0.45

-0.35

12.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–6
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Real Colorado National (3rd)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–7
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC (16th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Colorado Rush · Sun Nov 8 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Nov 21 vs OK Energy FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat May 1	at	AHFC (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 2	at	Challenge SC (8th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Royal (10th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC

-6

0.67

LDLLW

+0.27

-0.20

11.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Challenge SC (8th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Royal (10th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC · Sun Nov 8 vs West Side Alliance See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	DKSC (16th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	1–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Rush

-9

0.50

LLLLW

+0.04

-0.08

12.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Westlake (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Challenge SC (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 5	at	AHFC (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Royal · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sat Nov 7 vs Dallas Texans See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	1–1	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	DKSC (16th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Sting Black (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	0–2	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Athletico

-17

0.43

LLWLL

+0.35

-0.24

13.9

L	Wed Oct 21	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Westlake (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 6	at	AHFC (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Challenge SC (8th)	1–6
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–2	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Sting Black (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	DKSC (16th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	West Side Alliance (15th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	OK Energy FC (12th)	1–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

-16

0.17

LLLLL

+0.27

-0.08

14.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	AHFC (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge SC (8th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Royal (10th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Black · Sun Nov 8 at OK Energy FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC (16th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Black (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Colorado Storm (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.78

-0.34

15.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Colorado Storm (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Real Colorado National (3rd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge SC (8th)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC (5th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR SC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Colorado Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West Side Alliance (15th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC (12th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Colorado Rush (13th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Real Colorado Athletico (14th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sting Royal (10th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth (7th)	1–3	6%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Westlake (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lonestar ATX Red (9th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Black (4th)	0–4	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.