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FC Westlake

ECNL Girls · Texas GU17 · 16 teams · FC Westlake (all teams)

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6th
4-1-3 record · 8 played
1.63 points per game
-2 goal diff · 9–11
WWWLWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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FC Westlake
6th · 1.63 PPG
at
Lonestar ATX Red
9th · 1.50 PPG

Burger Activity Center, Stadium Field 1 ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.4 against · 1.19 expected points)

Season so farFC WestlakeLonestar ATX Red
Position6th9th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-34-0-4
Points per game1.631.50
Goals for / game1.11.5
Goals against / game1.41.6
Clean sheets33
Held scoreless23
Form (recent first)W L W W WL W L W W
Biggest win3–1 at OK Energy FC4–0 at West Side Alliance
Worst loss0–4 at SOLAR SC0–3 at Colorado Storm
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.17-0.08
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.17-0.17

Common opponents: Real Colorado National — we 0–1; they 0–2. Colorado Storm — we 1–4; they 0–3. West Side Alliance — we 1–1; they 4–0. OK Energy FC — we 3–1; they 2–0. Real Colorado Athletico — we 1–0; they 0–2. Colorado Rush — we 2–0; they 1–0. SOLAR SC — we 0–4; they 1–4. Dallas Texans — we 1–0; they 4–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Real Colorado National, 0–4 at SOLAR SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Burger Activity Center.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Westlake – Lonestar ATX Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.56 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Win
1.78 PPG
6th— holds 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Draw
1.56 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1
Loss
1.44 PPG
9th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 21%
  10. 10th 18%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SOLAR SC 2.67 (+1.04) 1st (2.48) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Colorado Storm 2.45 (+0.82) 2nd (2.38) 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Real Colorado National 2.25 (+0.62) 3rd (2.25) 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
4 Sting Black 2.17 (+0.54) 4th (2.16) 20 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5 AHFC 2.13 (+0.50) 5th (1.96) 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

26 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link FC Westlake to Lonestar ATX Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
6 even
9 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 0–2 1–4 3–0 1–0 2–4 0–4 4–1 2–0 0–1 0–1 2–0 1–0 2–0 1–1 0–4 2–0 6–0 1–1 FC Westlake 6th OK Energy FC 12th Colorado Storm 2nd Dallas Texans 11th SOLAR SC 1st Colorado Rush 13th Real Colorado Natio… 3rd Real Colorado Athle… 14th West Side Alliance 15th Lonestar ATX Red 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18 Oct 21

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 3rd hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Lonestar ATX Red
9th · 4-0-4 · GD -1
Away
Burger Activity Center · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.19 1.58 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Sting Royal
10th · 2-0-4 · GD +1
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.26 1.54 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
7th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Westlake High School
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.13 1.51 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM
Challenge SC
8th · 4-0-4 · GD +6
Home
Westlake High School
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.20 1.48 Upside
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
DKSC
16th · 0-0-6 · GD -23
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
2–0 2.43 1.55 Bank it
Sun May 2
11:00 AM
Sting Black
4th · 4-1-1 · GD +8
Home
Westlake High School Stadium - Chaparral Stadium · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.86 1.50 Upside
Sat May 8
11:00 AM
AHFC
5th · 5-2-1 · GD +9
Home
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
22%
0–1 0.95 1.47 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SOLAR SC 6510 192+17 162.67 WDWWW -0.13 -0.19 98% 1.7
2 Colorado Storm 11830 279+18 272.45 WWDWW -0.03 -0.40 98% 2.3
3 Real Colorado National 12903 3310+23 272.25 LLWLW -0.13 -0.31 95% 2.9
4 Sting Black 6411 157+8 132.17 WWDLW +0.53 -0.53 74% 3.7
5 AHFC 8521 156+9 172.13 LWDWW -0.38 +0.22 29% 5.0
6 FC Westlake 8413 911-2 131.63 WWWLW -0.17 +0.07 1% 8.3
7 FC Dallas Youth 5221 128+4 81.60 DLDWW +0.13 -0.20 5% 6.9
8 Challenge SC 8404 2216+6 121.50 LLWWL -0.38 +0.27 1% 8.0
9 Lonestar ATX Red 8404 1213-1 121.50 WWLWL -0.17 +0.06 0% 8.2
10 Sting Royal 6204 109+1 61.00 LLWWL +0.32 -0.34 0% 8.7
11 Dallas Texans 7205 921-12 60.86 LWLLL +0.45 -0.35 0% 12.1
12 OK Energy FC 6114 713-6 40.67 LDLLW +0.27 -0.20 0% 11.3
13 Colorado Rush 6105 413-9 30.50 LLLLW +0.04 -0.08 0% 12.9
14 Real Colorado Athletico 7106 421-17 30.43 LLWLL +0.35 -0.24 0% 13.9
15 West Side Alliance 6015 319-16 10.17 LLLLL +0.27 -0.08 0% 14.8
16 DKSC 6006 326-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.78 -0.34 0% 15.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.