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Concorde Fire Premier

ECNL Girls · Southeast GU18/19 · 16 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)

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8th
3-2-3 record · 8 played
1.38 points per game
+4 goal diff · 13–9
DWLDWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.5
-0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Concorde Fire Premier
8th · 1.38 PPG
at
Concorde Fire Platinum
1st · 2.75 PPG

Georgia Sports Park , field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.7 for, 3.0 against · 0.29 expected points)

Season so farConcorde Fire PremierConcorde Fire Platinum
Position8th1st
Record (W-D-L)3-2-37-1-0
Points per game1.382.75
Goals for / game1.64.3
Goals against / game1.10.4
Clean sheets35
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W D L W DD W W W W
Biggest win4–0 vs Florida Kraze Krush8–0 vs Jacksonville FC
Worst loss0–2 vs Athletic Club Florida—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.26+2.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.44-0.30

Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush — we 4–0; they 3–1. Seminole United — we 1–2; they 1–1. Athletic Club Florida — we 0–2; they 2–1. Team Boca — we 2–2; they 3–0. Tampa Bay United — we 2–0; they 6–0. Florida Premier FC — we 0–1; they 4–0. Sporting SA JAX — we 2–2; they 7–0. Jacksonville FC — we 2–0; they 8–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Concorde Fire Platinum score 4.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Concorde Fire Platinum concede only 0.4/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Athletic Club Florida, 0–1 at Florida Premier FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Georgia Sports Park .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    United Futbol Academy sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.38.

    A point moves us above United Futbol Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Concorde Fire Platinum game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – Concorde Fire Platinum) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.22 PPG
11th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 4
Win
1.56 PPG
7th▲ up 1 8th— holds 10th▼ down 2
Draw
1.33 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 12th▼ down 4
Loss
1.22 PPG
11th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–2 loss we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 18%
  8. 8th 25%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Concorde Fire Platinum 2.75 (+1.37) 1st (2.68) 31 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Seminole United 2.50 (+1.12) 3rd (2.36) 27 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Athletic Club Florida 2.38 (+1.00) 2nd (2.37) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 CESA Liberty 2.38 (+1.00) 4th (2.12) 25 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
5 Florida Premier FC 2.25 (+0.87) 5th (2.09) 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 Team Boca 1.63 (+0.25) 6th (1.63) 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
7 United Futbol Academy 1.50 (+0.12) 7th (1.46) A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Premier to Concorde Fire Platinum through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
13 favour them
-3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 1–1 4–0 1–3 2–2 0–3 0–2 1–2 2–0 0–6 0–1 0–4 2–0 0–8 2–2 0–7 0–1 0–1 0–4 Concorde Fire Premi… 8th Seminole United 2nd Florida Kraze Krush 13th Team Boca 6th Athletic Club Flori… 3rd Tampa Bay United 16th Florida Premier FC 5th Jacksonville FC 15th Sporting SA JAX 14th Concorde Fire Plati… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.40 · 5th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Concorde Fire Platinum
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +31
Away
Georgia Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.29 1.25 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
GSA
9th · 3-1-4 · GD +3
Away far trip
GSA East
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.32 1.26 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Atlanta Fire United
10th · 3-1-4 · GD -2
Home
Georgia Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.32 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM
United Futbol Academy
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +6
Home
Georgia Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.42 1.33 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
South Carolina United
12th · 2-2-4 · GD -6
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.78 1.36 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM
CESA Liberty
4th · 6-1-1 · GD +11
Away far trip
GE Vernova Park · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
0–1 0.86 1.33 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
Alabama FC
11th · 3-1-4 · GD -3
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.66 1.35 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Concorde Fire Platinum 8710 343+31 222.75 WWWWD -0.30 +0.07 100% 1.2
2 Seminole United 10811 247+17 252.50 WWWWD +0.03 -0.19 94% 2.8
3 Athletic Club Florida 8611 225+17 192.38 WLDWW +0.39 -0.63 96% 2.6
4 CESA Liberty 8611 176+11 192.38 WWWWW -0.44 +0.31 62% 4.2
5 Florida Premier FC 8602 148+6 182.25 WWWLW +0.34 -0.50 46% 4.4
6 Team Boca 8413 1211+1 131.63 DWLWW +0.39 -0.44 1% 6.6
7 United Futbol Academy 8404 1610+6 121.50 LWLLL -0.27 +0.38 1% 7.6
8 Concorde Fire Premier 8323 139+4 111.38 DWLDW -0.44 +0.40 0% 8.5
9 GSA 8314 129+3 101.25 WLDLL -0.30 +0.42 0% 9.0
10 Atlanta Fire United 8314 1618-2 101.25 WLDLL -0.27 +0.48 0% 10.3
11 Alabama FC 8314 1316-3 101.25 LLWLD -0.44 +0.50 0% 10.6
12 South Carolina United 8224 1016-6 81.00 DWDWL -0.44 +0.53 0% 12.0
13 Florida Kraze Krush 9234 614-8 91.00 DLDLW +0.22 -0.11 0% 11.4
14 Sporting SA JAX 9036 627-21 30.33 LLDDD +0.46 -0.44 0% 14.3
15 Jacksonville FC 10109 731-24 30.30 LLLWL +0.38 -0.38 0% 14.6
16 Tampa Bay United 8008 234-32 00.00 LLLLL +0.34 -0.03 0% 15.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.