CESA Liberty

ECNL Girls · Southeast GU18/19 · 16 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)

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4th

6-1-1 record · 8 played

2.38 points per game

+11 goal diff · 17–6

WWWWWlast 5

61% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

-0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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CESA Liberty
4th · 2.38 PPG

United Futbol Academy
7th · 1.50 PPG

Fowler Park, Field 6 ↗ far trip

46% 24% 30%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.3 against · 1.62 expected points)

Season so far	CESA Liberty	United Futbol Academy
Position	4th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-1	4-0-4
Points per game	2.38	1.50
Goals for / game	2.1	2.0
Goals against / game	0.8	1.3
Clean sheets	3	3
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L L W L
Biggest win	3–0 at Sporting SA JAX	5–0 vs Sporting SA JAX
Worst loss	0–2 vs Athletic Club Florida	1–3 vs Florida Premier FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.92	+0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.44	-0.27

Common opponents: Team Boca — we 2–1; they 1–2. Athletic Club Florida — we 0–2; they 1–3. Florida Kraze Krush — we 0–0; they 2–0. Seminole United — we 3–1; they 0–1. Sporting SA JAX — we 3–0; they 5–0. Jacksonville FC — we 3–0; they 2–1. Florida Premier FC — we 2–1; they 1–3. Tampa Bay United — we 4–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Athletic Club Florida, 0–0 vs Florida Kraze Krush.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 24% / loss 30%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Confidence is low on their side
United Futbol Academy have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Fowler Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Athletic Club Florida sit 3rd on 2.38 PPG; we are on 2.38.
A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the United Futbol Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – United Futbol Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.22 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Win 2.44 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 2.22 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Loss 2.11 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

61% top 4

39% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 5%
3rd 15%
4th 40%
5th 33%
6th 4%
7th 2%
8th <1%
9th <1%
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Concorde Fire Platinum	2.75 (+0.37)	1st (2.68)	23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Seminole United	2.50 (+0.12)	3rd (2.36)	19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
3	Athletic Club Florida	2.38 (+0.00)	2nd (2.37)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to United Futbol Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

4 even

4 favour them

+0.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.31 · 7th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	United Futbol Academy 7th · 4-0-4 · GD +6	Away far trip Fowler Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.62	2.29	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 02:30 PM	Atlanta Fire United 10th · 3-1-4 · GD -2	Away far trip Pinecrest Academy · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.08	2.27	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	GSA 9th · 3-1-4 · GD +3	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–0	1.95	2.24	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Concorde Fire Platinum 1st · 7-1-0 · GD +31	Home Mesa Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.73	2.11	Upside
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	Alabama FC 11th · 3-1-4 · GD -3	Home GE Vernova Park · turf?	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	2–0	2.32	2.13	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	Concorde Fire Premier 8th · 3-2-3 · GD +4	Home GE Vernova Park · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–0	1.90	2.11	Swing game
Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM	South Carolina United 12th · 2-2-4 · GD -6	Away far trip Southeastern Freight Lines Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–0	2.19	2.12	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Concorde Fire Platinum

+31

2.75

WWWWD

-0.30

+0.07

100%

1.2

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Seminole United (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Team Boca (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Jacksonville FC (15th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	7–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Carolina United (12th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	GSA (9th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seminole United

+17

2.50

WWWWD

+0.03

-0.19

95%

2.8

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	GSA (9th)	5–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Jacksonville FC (15th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	South Carolina United (12th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Alabama FC (11th)	3–0

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Mar 14 vs Team Boca · Sat Apr 3 at Tampa Bay United See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Team Boca (6th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Florida Premier FC (5th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	2–0	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Athletic Club Florida

+17

2.38

WLDWW

+0.39

-0.63

95%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	GSA (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (11th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	South Carolina United (12th)	7–1

Next: Sat Mar 13 at Seminole United · Sun Mar 14 at Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 20 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Seminole United (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	5–0	98%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Team Boca (6th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CESA Liberty

+11

2.38

WWWWW

-0.44

+0.31

61%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Florida Premier FC (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Seminole United (2nd)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Team Boca (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Nov 7 vs GSA See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	GSA (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	South Carolina United (12th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Premier FC

2.25

WWWLW

+0.34

-0.50

47%

4.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	South Carolina United (12th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	GSA (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Mar 13 at Jacksonville FC · Sun Mar 14 at Sporting SA JAX · Sat Mar 20 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Team Boca (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Seminole United (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Team Boca

1.63

DWLWW

+0.39

-0.44

6.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	GSA (9th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC (11th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	South Carolina United (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Mar 13 at Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 14 at Seminole United · Sat Mar 20 vs Florida Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	1–0	49%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Seminole United (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United Futbol Academy

1.50

LWLLL

-0.27

+0.38

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Team Boca (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Seminole United (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Jacksonville FC (15th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 1 at Atlanta Fire United See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	South Carolina United (12th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Alabama FC (11th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	GSA (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Premier

1.38

DWLDW

-0.44

+0.40

8.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Team Boca (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Seminole United (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 at GSA · Sat Nov 7 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	GSA (9th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	South Carolina United (12th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Alabama FC (11th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GSA

1.25

WLDLL

-0.30

+0.42

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Seminole United (2nd)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Team Boca (6th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Jacksonville FC (15th)	5–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Liberty See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	South Carolina United (12th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlanta Fire United

-2

1.25

WLDLL

-0.27

+0.48

10.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Team Boca (6th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Seminole United (2nd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Jacksonville FC (15th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina United · Sun Oct 25 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Carolina United (12th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Alabama FC (11th)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	GSA (9th)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC

-3

1.25

LLWLD

-0.44

+0.50

10.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	8–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Team Boca (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Seminole United (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at GSA · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 7 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	GSA (9th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	South Carolina United (12th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina United

-6

1.00

DWDWL

-0.44

+0.53

11.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Florida Premier FC (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	3–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seminole United (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Team Boca (6th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	GSA (9th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Florida Kraze Krush

-8

1.00

DLDLW

+0.22

-0.11

11.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	GSA (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	United Futbol Academy (7th)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	South Carolina United (12th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Jacksonville FC (15th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Alabama FC (11th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	0–4

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Team Boca · Sun Mar 14 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sat Apr 3 at Florida Premier FC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Team Boca (6th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Tampa Bay United (16th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Seminole United (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	1–0	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sporting SA JAX

-21

0.33

LLDDD

+0.46

-0.44

14.3

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	South Carolina United (12th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	GSA (9th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Seminole United (2nd)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	0–5

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 14 vs Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Team Boca (6th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville FC

-24

0.30

LLLWL

+0.38

-0.38

14.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Seminole United (2nd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Carolina United (12th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	GSA (9th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	2–3

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Florida Premier FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Apr 10 vs Team Boca See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Tampa Bay United (16th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Team Boca (6th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tampa Bay United

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.34

-0.03

15.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	CESA Liberty (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Carolina United (12th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Alabama FC (11th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (10th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	United Futbol Academy (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 29	at	GSA (9th)	0–3

Next: Sat Mar 13 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Mar 14 at Jacksonville FC · Sat Mar 20 at Athletic Club Florida See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sporting SA JAX (14th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Jacksonville FC (15th)	0–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Athletic Club Florida (3rd)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Team Boca (6th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Seminole United (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Florida Kraze Krush (13th)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Florida Premier FC (5th)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.