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Team Boca

ECNL Girls · Southeast GU17 · 16 teams · Team Boca (all teams)

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15th
0-2-6 record · 8 played
0.25 points per game
-28 goal diff · 9–37
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.7
+0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 13, 11:00 AM

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Team Boca
15th · 0.25 PPG
at
Florida Kraze Krush
13th · 0.67 PPG

Central Winds, Field C ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.8 against · 0.83 expected points)

Season so farTeam BocaFlorida Kraze Krush
Position15th13th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-62-0-7
Points per game0.250.67
Goals for / game1.11.2
Goals against / game4.62.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless13
Form (recent first)L L L L LL L L W L
Biggest win—2–0 vs Jacksonville FC
Worst loss2–10 vs Atlanta Fire United0–7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.29-1.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.81+0.48

Common opponents: CESA Liberty — we 1–1; they 0–1. South Carolina United — we 1–1; they 2–3. Alabama FC — we 1–5; they 2–4. Concorde Fire Premier — we 0–3; they 2–3. GSA — we 1–8; they 0–4. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 2–7; they 0–7. Atlanta Fire United — we 2–10; they 1–3. United Futbol Academy — we 1–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Concorde Fire Premier.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 22%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Florida Kraze Krush have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Central Winds.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Tampa Bay United sit 14th on 0.38 PPG; we are on 0.25.

    A point moves us above Tampa Bay United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Florida Kraze Krush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Boca – Florida Kraze Krush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.22 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Win
0.56 PPG
14th▲ up 1 13th▲ up 2 15th— holds
Draw
0.33 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Loss
0.22 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 21%
  15. 15th 58%
  16. 16th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Concorde Fire Platinum 2.63 (+2.38) 2nd (2.36) 38 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Florida Premier FC 2.50 (+2.25) 1st (2.60) 36 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Atlanta Fire United 2.38 (+2.13) 3rd (2.36) 34 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 GSA 2.25 (+2.00) 4th (2.26) 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Athletic Club Florida 2.00 (+1.75) 5th (2.18) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Concorde Fire Premier 2.00 (+1.75) 6th (1.69) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Alabama FC 2.00 (+1.75) 7th (1.65) 28 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 United Futbol Academy 1.50 (+1.25) 9th (1.16) 21 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
9 Seminole United 1.40 (+1.15) 8th (1.36) 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 South Carolina United 1.25 (+1.00) 12th (0.98) 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
11 CESA Liberty 1.13 (+0.88) 11th (0.98) 15 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
12 Sporting SA JAX 1.00 (+0.75) 10th (1.01) 13 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
13 Florida Kraze Krush 0.67 (+0.42) 13th (0.84) 9 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
14 Tampa Bay United 0.38 (+0.13) 14th (0.71) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Team Boca to Florida Kraze Krush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
12 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 3–2 1–1 1–0 2–7 7–0 0–3 3–2 1–5 4–2 1–2 0–2 1–8 4–0 2–10 3–1 2–0 0–2 9–0 1–0 2–1 Team Boca 15th South Carolina Unit… 10th CESA Liberty 11th Concorde Fire Plati… 1st Concorde Fire Premi… 6th Alabama FC 7th United Futbol Acade… 8th GSA 4th Atlanta Fire United 3rd Jacksonville FC 16th Florida Kraze Krush 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.47 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM
Florida Kraze Krush
13th · 2-0-7 · GD -14
Away far trip
Central Winds
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 0.31 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM
Seminole United
9th · 4-2-4 · GD -9
Away far trip
Seminole
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.59 0.34 Upside
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
Florida Premier FC
2nd · 6-2-0 · GD +27
Home
Fau Glades
●●●●● Very tough
1%
0–6 0.04 0.31 Upside
Sun Mar 21
01:00 PM
Tampa Bay United
14th · 1-0-7 · GD -20
Home
Fau Glades
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.29 0.40 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:30 PM
Jacksonville FC
16th · 0-0-9 · GD -31
Away far trip
Patton Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.85 0.51 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
01:00 PM
Sporting SA JAX
12th · 2-2-4 · GD -19
Away far trip
Veterans Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–2 1.09 0.55 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
Athletic Club Florida
5th · 5-1-2 · GD +12
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.11 0.52 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Concorde Fire Platinum 8701 3310+23 212.63 WWWWW -0.74 +0.57 85% 3.1
2 Florida Premier FC 8620 347+27 202.50 WWWWW +0.63 -1.17 100% 1.4
3 Atlanta Fire United 8611 5010+40 192.38 WWWWL -0.66 +0.38 88% 2.9
4 GSA 8530 346+28 182.25 WWDDW -0.74 +0.51 74% 3.5
5 Athletic Club Florida 8512 175+12 162.00 WLDWW +0.81 -0.98 51% 4.3
6 Concorde Fire Premier 8512 1710+7 162.00 WWLDW -0.74 +0.77 1% 6.5
7 Alabama FC 6402 1513+2 122.00 WWLLW -0.26 +0.21 1% 6.7
8 United Futbol Academy 8404 1318-5 121.50 LLLLW -0.66 +0.94 0% 9.7
9 Seminole United 10424 1625-9 141.40 LWWDL +0.26 -0.23 0% 8.2
10 South Carolina United 8314 1120-9 101.25 WWLWL -0.66 +0.98 0% 11.4
11 CESA Liberty 8233 59-4 91.13 DDWLL -0.67 +0.91 0% 10.9
12 Sporting SA JAX 8224 625-19 81.00 LLDWD +0.61 -0.48 0% 11.2
13 Florida Kraze Krush 9207 1125-14 60.67 LWLLL +0.48 -0.36 0% 12.3
14 Tampa Bay United 8107 929-20 30.38 LLLLW +0.63 -0.58 0% 13.4
15 Team Boca 8026 937-28 20.25 LLLLL +0.81 -0.47 0% 14.7
16 Jacksonville FC 9009 132-31 00.00 LLLLL +0.41 -0.22 0% 15.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.