Concorde Fire Premier

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Georgia Sports Park , field 4 ↗

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.7 against · 0.70 expected points)

Common opponents: Florida Kraze Krush — we 3–2; they 7–0. Seminole United — we 2–3; they 2–0. Athletic Club Florida — we 2–1; they 2–0. Team Boca — we 3–0; they 7–2. Tampa Bay United — we 3–0; they 5–0. Florida Premier FC — we 0–3; they 2–8. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–1; they 3–0. Jacksonville FC — we 3–0; they 5–0.

• Respect their attack
  Concorde Fire Platinum score 4.1/game — well above the league's 2.1.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Florida Premier FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 18%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  Concorde Fire Platinum have won 7 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at Georgia Sports Park .

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Athletic Club Florida sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

  A point moves us above Athletic Club Florida on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Concorde Fire Platinum game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – Concorde Fire Platinum) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd <1%
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 1%
5. 5th 4%
6. 6th 48%
7. 7th 35%
8. 8th 8%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th <1%
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).