Alabama FC

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GSA East, #3 ↗ far trip

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.9 against · 0.32 expected points)

Common opponents: Seminole United — we 3–1; they 2–2. Florida Kraze Krush — we 4–2; they 4–0. Team Boca — we 5–1; they 8–1. Athletic Club Florida — we 0–3; they 1–1. Florida Premier FC — we 0–4; they 2–2. Tampa Bay United — we 3–2; they 3–0.

• Respect their attack
  GSA score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.1.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  GSA concede only 0.8/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Athletic Club Florida, 0–4 at Florida Premier FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:00 PM at GSA East.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Concorde Fire Premier sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

  A point moves us above Concorde Fire Premier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the GSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Alabama FC – GSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–3 loss we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 1%
5. 5th 4%
6. 6th 40%
7. 7th 40%
8. 8th 10%
9. 9th 3%
10. 10th 1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th <1%
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).