Florida Premier FC

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Patton Park, Field 3 ↗ far trip

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.9 for, 0.4 against · 2.88 expected points)

Common opponents: Concorde Fire Platinum — we 2–1; they 0–7. GSA — we 3–3; they 0–6. Atlanta Fire United — we 1–0; they 0–4. United Futbol Academy — we 1–2; they 0–7. Alabama FC — we 3–1; they 0–2. Concorde Fire Premier — we 2–1; they 0–2. CESA Liberty — we 2–0; they 1–3. South Carolina United — we 4–1; they 0–2.

• They struggle to score
  Jacksonville FC average 0.1 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 9 of 10.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Jacksonville FC concede 3.9/game; worst result 0–7 at United Futbol Academy.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 3–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Confidence is low on their side
  Jacksonville FC have lost 10 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 08:30 AM at Patton Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 08:30 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  Alabama FC sit 3rd on 2.38 PPG; we are on 2.38.

  A point moves us above Alabama FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Jacksonville FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC – Jacksonville FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 11%
2. 2nd 28%
3. 3rd 31%
4. 4th 16%
5. 5th 8%
6. 6th 5%
7. 7th 1%
8. 8th 1%
9. 9th <1%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th
12. 12th
13. 13th
14. 14th
15. 15th
16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).