CESA Liberty
ECNL Girls · Southeast GU13 · 16 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.5 against · 1.04 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Liberty | Atlanta Fire United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-3 | 4-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W L | L W L L W |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Team Boca | 4–0 vs Jacksonville FC |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Seminole United | 0–2 at Athletic Club Florida |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.18 | +0.17 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.33 | -0.29 |
Common opponents: Team Boca — we 2–0; they 1–0. Athletic Club Florida — we 1–3; they 0–2. Florida Kraze Krush — we 2–2; they 1–2. Seminole United — we 0–3; they 1–2. Sporting SA JAX — we 1–0; they 1–0. Jacksonville FC — we 3–1; they 4–0. Florida Premier FC — we 0–2; they 0–1. Tampa Bay United — we 2–1; they 3–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 vs Seminole United, 0–2 at Florida Premier FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Seminole United sit 7th on 1.70 PPG; we are on 1.63.A point moves us above Seminole United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Atlanta Fire United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – Atlanta Fire United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.56 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.78 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.56 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.44 PPG |
10th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 27%
- 10th 39%
- 11th 13%
- 12th 2%
- 13th <1%
- 14th
- 15th
- 16th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Futbol Academy | 3.00 (+1.37) | 1st (2.49) | 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 2.38 (+0.75) | 3rd (2.23) | 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 3 | Alabama FC | 2.38 (+0.75) | 4th (2.09) | 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | Florida Premier FC | 2.38 (+0.75) | 2nd (2.24) | 23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | GSA | 2.13 (+0.50) | 5th (1.93) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 6 | Florida Kraze Krush | 1.78 (+0.15) | 6th (1.81) | 14 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 7 | Seminole United | 1.70 (+0.07) | 7th (1.71) | A point next game |
How the results connect
14 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to Atlanta Fire United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.45 · 3rd hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Atlanta Fire United 10th · 4-0-4 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.04 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
South Carolina United 12th · 1-2-5 · GD -13 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 11th · 3-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 3rd · 6-1-1 · GD +13 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
GSA 5th · 5-2-1 · GD +11 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +16 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
0–2 | 0.61 | 1.37 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | United Futbol Academy | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.43 | +0.26 | 98% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Mar 13 vs South Carolina United · Sun Mar 14 vs CESA Liberty See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 5 | +16 | 19 | 2.38 | WDWWW | -0.30 | +0.23 | 88% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Mar 14 vs Alabama FC · Sat Mar 20 vs GSA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Alabama FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 19 | 2.38 | WLWWD | -0.41 | +0.28 | 67% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at GSA · Sun Mar 14 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Mar 20 vs Concorde Fire Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Premier FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 19 | 2.38 | LWWWW | +0.30 | -0.51 | 85% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Jacksonville FC · Sun Mar 14 at Sporting SA JAX · Sat Mar 20 at Team Boca See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | GSA | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 17 | 2.13 | WWWDL | -0.30 | +0.30 | 34% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Alabama FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Mar 20 at Concorde Fire Platinum See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Florida Kraze Krush | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 16 | 1.78 | WLWLW | +0.09 | -0.12 | 17% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Team Boca · Sun Mar 14 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Apr 4 at Tampa Bay United See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Seminole United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 17 | 1.70 | WLWDL | +0.01 | -0.02 | 5% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Athletic Club Florida · Sun Mar 14 vs Team Boca · Sat Apr 3 at Tampa Bay United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | CESA Liberty | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 | 1.63 | LWWLW | -0.33 | +0.45 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Mar 14 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs South Carolina United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Athletic Club Florida | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 11 | 1.57 | DLDLW | +0.26 | -0.22 | 5% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Mar 13 at Seminole United · Sun Mar 14 at Florida Kraze Krush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Atlanta Fire United | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 | 1.50 | WLLWL | -0.29 | +0.40 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Mar 14 vs South Carolina United · Sat Mar 20 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Concorde Fire Premier | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 | 1.25 | LWLWW | -0.41 | +0.49 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Mar 14 at GSA · Sat Mar 20 at Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | South Carolina United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 5 | 0.63 | LWLDL | -0.33 | +0.61 | 0% | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at United Futbol Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Atlanta Fire United · Sat Mar 20 at CESA Liberty See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sporting SA JAX | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 | 0.56 | LLWLD | +0.36 | -0.46 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 14 vs Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 10 vs Athletic Club Florida See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Team Boca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 4 | 0.50 | WLLLL | +0.43 | -0.21 | 0% | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 14 at Seminole United · Sat Mar 20 vs Florida Premier FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Tampa Bay United | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLDL | +0.31 | -0.24 | 0% | 14.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Sporting SA JAX · Sun Mar 14 at Jacksonville FC · Sat Mar 20 at Athletic Club Florida See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Jacksonville FC | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 39 | -38 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.39 | -0.24 | 0% | 15.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Florida Premier FC · Sun Mar 14 vs Tampa Bay United · Sat Apr 10 vs Team Boca See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.