TableChase Clubs

St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU16 · 16 teams · St. Louis Scott Gallagher (all teams)

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4th
7-2-2 record · 11 played
2.09 points per game
+11 goal diff · 19–8
WWWWDlast 5
44% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
-0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:30 AM

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St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
4th · 2.09 PPG
vs
Michigan Hawks
2nd · 2.50 PPG

SLSG Creve Coeur Facility, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.4 against · 0.90 expected points)

Season so farSt. Louis Scott Gallagher NavyMichigan Hawks
Position4th2nd
Record (W-D-L)7-2-28-1-1
Points per game2.092.50
Goals for / game1.73.1
Goals against / game0.70.4
Clean sheets56
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)D W W W WW D W W L
Biggest win5–1 at St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green9–0 at Rockford Raptors FC
Worst loss0–2 at Nationals SC0–1 vs Sporting Blue Valley
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.77+1.92
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.04-0.16

Common opponents: Sporting Blue Valley — we 1–0; they 0–1. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 1–2; they 1–1. Rockford Raptors FC — we 1–1; they 9–0. FC Wisconsin — we 4–0; they 3–0. Chicago Inter — we 2–1; they 1–0. Kansas City Athletics — we 1–0; they 1–0. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–0; they 5–1. Sporting Iowa — we 1–1; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Michigan Hawks score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Michigan Hawks concede only 0.4/game with 6 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Nationals SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 21%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Michigan Hawks game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy – Michigan Hawks) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.92 PPG
4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.17 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.92 PPG
4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
44% top 4
56% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 37%
  5. 5th 31%
  6. 6th 23%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC 2.56 (+0.47) 1st (2.54) 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Michigan Hawks 2.50 (+0.41) 2nd (2.41) 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2.30 (+0.21) 3rd (2.39) 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

77 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy to Michigan Hawks through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

23 favour us
7 even
47 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 0–1 2–1 0–1 1–1 1–2 4–0 0–3 1–2 1–1 1–0 1–0 1–0 1–5 1–1 0–9 4–0 0–5 0–0 2–2 4–1 0–4 St. Louis Scott Gal… 4th Kansas City Athleti… 5th Chicago Inter 8th Sporting Iowa 11th FC Wisconsin 15th Eclipse Select Socc… 3rd Sporting Blue Valley 6th Gretna Elite Academy 7th Rockford Raptors FC 13th Michigan Hawks Magic 14th Missouri Rush 10th Michigan Hawks 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:30 AM
Michigan Hawks
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +27
Home
SLSG Creve Coeur Facility
●●●●● Very tough
21%
0–1 0.90 1.99 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:30 AM
Michigan Hawks Magic
14th · 1-2-8 · GD -26
Home
SLSG Creve Coeur Facility
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
2–0 2.72 2.05 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Missouri Rush
10th · 4-2-6 · GD -4
Away far trip
Missouri Rush Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–0 1.91 2.04 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
12:00 PM
MN Thunder Academy
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away far trip
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–0 1.80 2.02 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC 9720 200+20 232.56 WWWDW +0.20 -0.48 100% 1.6
2 Michigan Hawks 10811 314+27 252.50 LWWDW -0.16 +0.07 99% 2.3
3 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10721 369+27 232.30 WWLDW +0.03 -0.45 99% 2.3
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11722 198+11 232.09 WWWWD -0.04 -0.04 44% 4.8
5 Kansas City Athletics 11623 2310+13 201.82 WLDDW +0.19 -0.75 31% 5.1
6 Sporting Blue Valley 10532 1810+8 181.80 WWDWL +0.34 -0.83 25% 5.3
7 Gretna Elite Academy 11524 1415-1 171.55 WLWLL -0.20 +0.79 0% 8.4
8 Chicago Inter 8404 1813+5 121.50 WLLWW -0.04 -0.02 1% 7.6
9 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11416 821-13 131.18 WWLDW +0.02 +0.13 0% 10.5
10 Missouri Rush 12426 1216-4 141.17 WLDLW -0.22 +0.94 0% 10.3
11 Sporting Iowa 11326 1723-6 111.00 LLLDD -0.16 +0.79 0% 11.6
12 Liverpool FC MI 11227 723-16 80.73 LDDLL -0.24 +1.09 0% 13.5
13 Rockford Raptors FC 10127 1027-17 50.50 LLLWL +0.05 +0.25 0% 13.8
14 Michigan Hawks Magic 11128 632-26 50.45 LWLLL +0.04 +0.39 0% 14.9
15 FC Wisconsin 10037 432-28 30.30 LLLDL +0.03 +0.42 0% 15.7
16 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.