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Liverpool FC MI

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU16 · 16 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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12th
2-2-7 record · 11 played
0.73 points per game
-16 goal diff · 7–23
LDDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 13.5
-0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Liverpool FC MI
12th · 0.73 PPG
vs

Avondale High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.6 for, 3.9 against · 0.13 expected points)

Season so farLiverpool FC MIEclipse Select Soccer Club
Position12th3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-2-77-2-1
Points per game0.732.30
Goals for / game0.63.6
Goals against / game2.10.9
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless51
Form (recent first)L L D D LW D L W W
Biggest win2–0 at Rockford Raptors FC7–0 vs FC Wisconsin
Worst loss1–6 at Kansas City Athletics0–1 vs Nationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.22+2.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.24+0.03

Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 0–1; they 3–0. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–2; they 2–1. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 1–0; they 8–1. Rockford Raptors FC — we 2–0; they 4–1. Nationals SC — we 0–4; they 0–1. FC Wisconsin — we 1–1; they 7–0. Sporting Blue Valley — we 1–2; they 2–2. Kansas City Athletics — we 1–6; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Eclipse Select Soccer Club score 3.6/game — well above the league's 1.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green, 0–2 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–3 at Sporting Iowa, 0–3 vs Gretna Elite Academy, 0–4 at Nationals SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (6%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eclipse Select Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Eclipse Select Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3
Win
0.92 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1
Draw
0.75 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Loss
0.67 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
13.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 51%
  14. 14th 41%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.33 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC 2.56 (+1.83) 1st (2.54) 31 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Michigan Hawks 2.50 (+1.77) 2nd (2.41) 30 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2.30 (+1.57) 3rd (2.39) 27 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.09 (+1.36) 4th (2.02) 24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Kansas City Athletics 1.82 (+1.09) 5th (1.95) 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Sporting Blue Valley 1.80 (+1.07) 6th (1.93) 19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Gretna Elite Academy 1.55 (+0.82) 9th (1.38) 16 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Chicago Inter 1.50 (+0.77) 7th (1.52) 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 1.18 (+0.45) 10th (1.11) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
10 Missouri Rush 1.17 (+0.44) 11th (1.10) 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
11 Sporting Iowa 1.00 (+0.27) 12th (0.91) 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection

How the results connect

79 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Eclipse Select Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
75 favour them
-4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 2–2 2–0 1–4 0–4 1–0 0–2 1–2 0–1 0–3 1–0 1–8 1–1 0–7 1–6 1–5 1–0 1–1 1–1 0–1 5–2 1–4 3–0 Liverpool FC MI 12th Sporting Blue Valley 6th Rockford Raptors FC 13th Nationals SC 1st St. Louis Scott Gal… 4th St. Louis Scott Gal… 9th Michigan Hawks Magic 14th FC Wisconsin 15th Kansas City Athleti… 5th Missouri Rush 10th Michigan Hawks 2nd Chicago Inter 8th Eclipse Select Socc… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

1st 8th 16th Aug 29 Sep 6 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.09 · 1st hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM
Eclipse Select Soccer Club
3rd · 7-2-1 · GD +27
Home
Avondale High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–3 0.13 0.68 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM
Chicago Inter
8th · 4-0-4 · GD +5
Home
Avondale High School
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.52 0.67 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
MN Thunder Academy
16th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Avondale High School
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.71 0.67 Upside
Sat Dec 12
01:00 PM
Michigan Hawks
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +27
Home
UWM Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–3 0.14 0.63 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC 9720 200+20 232.56 WWWDW +0.20 -0.48 100% 1.6
2 Michigan Hawks 10811 314+27 252.50 LWWDW -0.16 +0.07 99% 2.3
3 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10721 369+27 232.30 WWLDW +0.03 -0.45 99% 2.2
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11722 198+11 232.09 WWWWD -0.04 -0.04 42% 4.8
5 Kansas City Athletics 11623 2310+13 201.82 WLDDW +0.19 -0.75 33% 5.1
6 Sporting Blue Valley 10532 1810+8 181.80 WWDWL +0.34 -0.83 25% 5.3
7 Gretna Elite Academy 11524 1415-1 171.55 WLWLL -0.20 +0.79 0% 8.4
8 Chicago Inter 8404 1813+5 121.50 WLLWW -0.04 -0.02 1% 7.6
9 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11416 821-13 131.18 WWLDW +0.02 +0.13 0% 10.5
10 Missouri Rush 12426 1216-4 141.17 WLDLW -0.22 +0.94 0% 10.3
11 Sporting Iowa 11326 1723-6 111.00 LLLDD -0.16 +0.79 0% 11.6
12 Liverpool FC MI 11227 723-16 80.73 LDDLL -0.24 +1.09 0% 13.5
13 Rockford Raptors FC 10127 1027-17 50.50 LLLWL +0.05 +0.25 0% 13.8
14 Michigan Hawks Magic 11128 632-26 50.45 LWLLL +0.04 +0.39 0% 14.9
15 FC Wisconsin 10037 432-28 30.30 LLLDL +0.03 +0.42 0% 15.7
16 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.