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MN Thunder Academy

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU16 · 16 teams · Minnesota Thunder Academy (all teams)

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16th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.4
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 12:45 PM

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MN Thunder Academy
16th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Sporting Blue Valley
6th · 1.80 PPG

Academy of Holy Angels, South Turf 1 (11v11) ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.04 expected points)

Season so farMN Thunder AcademySporting Blue Valley
Position16th6th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-05-3-2
Points per game0.001.80
Goals for / game0.01.8
Goals against / game0.01.0
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)—L W D W W
Biggest win—5–2 vs Chicago Inter
Worst loss—0–2 vs Nationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+0.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00+0.34

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Wisconsin sit 15th on 0.30 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above FC Wisconsin on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Blue Valley game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MN Thunder Academy – Sporting Blue Valley) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 5
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 15 1st▲ up 15 1st▲ up 15
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 5 11th▲ up 5
Loss
0.00 PPG
16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
8.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 22%
  8. 8th 28%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Nationals SC 2.56 (+2.56) 1st (2.54) A point next game
2 Michigan Hawks 2.50 (+2.50) 2nd (2.41) A point next game
3 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 2.30 (+2.30) 3rd (2.39) A point next game
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 2.09 (+2.09) 4th (2.02) A point next game
5 Kansas City Athletics 1.82 (+1.82) 5th (1.95) A point next game
6 Sporting Blue Valley 1.80 (+1.80) 6th (1.93) A point next game
7 Gretna Elite Academy 1.55 (+1.55) 9th (1.38) A point next game
8 Chicago Inter 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.52) A point next game
9 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 1.18 (+1.18) 10th (1.11) A point next game
10 Missouri Rush 1.17 (+1.17) 11th (1.10) A point next game
11 Sporting Iowa 1.00 (+1.00) 12th (0.91) A point next game
12 Liverpool FC MI 0.73 (+0.73) 13th (0.63) Already ahead
13 Rockford Raptors FC 0.50 (+0.50) 14th (0.57) Already ahead
14 Michigan Hawks Magic 0.45 (+0.45) 15th (0.44) Already ahead
15 FC Wisconsin 0.30 (+0.30) 16th (0.30) Already ahead

Position over the season

16 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 10th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
12:45 PM
Sporting Blue Valley
6th · 5-3-2 · GD +8
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.04 1.04 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM
Kansas City Athletics
5th · 6-2-3 · GD +13
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.86 0.95 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Liverpool FC MI
12th · 2-2-7 · GD -16
Away far trip
Avondale High School
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.07 1.32 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
11:30 AM
Nationals SC
1st · 7-2-0 · GD +20
Away far trip
Michigan Stars Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–2 0.30 1.07 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM
Eclipse Select Soccer Club
3rd · 7-2-1 · GD +27
Away far trip
Oak Brook Park District · turf
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.33 0.92 Upside
Sun Nov 22
12:30 PM
Chicago Inter
8th · 4-0-4 · GD +5
Away far trip
Chicago Inter Complex
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.02 0.94 Upside
Sat Dec 5
02:00 PM
Michigan Hawks
2nd · 8-1-1 · GD +27
Away far trip
St. Joe's Sports Dome
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.30 0.85 Upside
Sun Dec 6
12:00 PM
Michigan Hawks Magic
14th · 1-2-8 · GD -26
Away far trip
Legacy Center Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.34 1.03 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
12:00 PM
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy
4th · 7-2-2 · GD +11
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●●● Very tough
23%
0–1 0.94 1.02 Upside
Sun Dec 13
12:00 PM
St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
9th · 4-1-6 · GD -13
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.07 1.13 Swing game
Sat Dec 19
12:00 PM
Gretna Elite Academy
7th · 5-2-4 · GD -1
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.62 1.17 Swing game
Sun Dec 20
12:00 PM
FC Wisconsin
15th · 0-3-7 · GD -28
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.64 1.29 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
11:30 AM
Rockford Raptors FC
13th · 1-2-7 · GD -17
Away far trip
Mercyhealth Sportscore Two
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.35 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
TBD
Missouri Rush
10th · 4-2-6 · GD -4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.46 1.36 Upside
Sat Jan 23
07:30 PM
Sporting Iowa
11th · 3-2-6 · GD -6
Home
Academy of Holy Angels · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 1.39 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Nationals SC 9720 200+20 232.56 WWWDW +0.20 -0.48 100% 1.6
2 Michigan Hawks 10811 314+27 252.50 LWWDW -0.16 +0.07 99% 2.3
3 Eclipse Select Soccer Club 10721 369+27 232.30 WWLDW +0.03 -0.45 99% 2.2
4 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy 11722 198+11 232.09 WWWWD -0.04 -0.04 40% 4.8
5 Kansas City Athletics 11623 2310+13 201.82 WLDDW +0.19 -0.75 33% 5.1
6 Sporting Blue Valley 10532 1810+8 181.80 WWDWL +0.34 -0.83 27% 5.3
7 Gretna Elite Academy 11524 1415-1 171.55 WLWLL -0.20 +0.79 0% 8.4
8 Chicago Inter 8404 1813+5 121.50 WLLWW -0.04 -0.02 0% 7.6
9 St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green 11416 821-13 131.18 WWLDW +0.02 +0.13 0% 10.5
10 Missouri Rush 12426 1216-4 141.17 WLDLW -0.22 +0.94 0% 10.3
11 Sporting Iowa 11326 1723-6 111.00 LLLDD -0.16 +0.79 0% 11.6
12 Liverpool FC MI 11227 723-16 80.73 LDDLL -0.24 +1.09 0% 13.4
13 Rockford Raptors FC 10127 1027-17 50.50 LLLWL +0.05 +0.25 0% 13.8
14 Michigan Hawks Magic 11128 632-26 50.45 LWLLL +0.04 +0.39 0% 14.9
15 FC Wisconsin 10037 432-28 30.30 LLLDL +0.03 +0.42 0% 15.7
16 MN Thunder Academy 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.01 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.