Nationals SC
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU13 · 8 teams · Nationals (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:45 AM
Oakland University Upper Fields, South Field ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.3 for, 0.7 against · 2.83 expected points)
| Season so far | Nationals SC | Liverpool FC MI |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-1 | 0-2-3 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W | D L D |
| Biggest win | 8–0 at Michigan Hawks Magic | — |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green | 0–10 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.42 | -1.46 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.83 | -1.83 |
Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 1–0; they 0–10. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 0–1; they 1–1. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 8–0; they 1–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Liverpool FC MI average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 1 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Liverpool FC MI concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–10 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Michigan Hawks sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Michigan Hawks on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC MI game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Nationals SC – Liverpool FC MI) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.17 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.17 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.83 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 13%
- 2nd 57%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 2%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.74 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.52) | 47 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 2 | Michigan Hawks | 2.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.98) | A point next game |
How the results connect
1 chain · 3 teams
Paths of results that link Nationals SC to Liverpool FC MI through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM |
Liverpool FC MI 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -23 |
Home Oakland University Upper Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.14 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:30 AM |
Chicago Inter 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -2 |
Home Evolution Sportsplex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.51 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 06:30 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -5 |
Home Evolution Sportsplex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.51 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home Oakland University Upper Fields · turf? |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM |
MN Thunder Academy |
Home Evolution Sportsplex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.25 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 2.19 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Michigan Hawks Magic 8th · 0-2-8 · GD -25 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.25 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 2.17 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 2.12 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Liverpool FC MI 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -23 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Michigan Hawks 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.05 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Chicago Inter 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.31 | 2.15 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.33 | 2.16 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.48 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Nationals SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Michigan Hawks | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 16 | 2.00 | WDWLW | -0.16 | -0.12 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs Nationals SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Nationals SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WLW | -1.83 | -0.13 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC MI · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 | 1.57 | WLDDW | +0.15 | -0.05 | 48% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Wisconsin | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLWL | -0.49 | +0.01 | 46% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Liverpool FC MI See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | 0.86 | WLLWL | +0.12 | -0.02 | 7% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 at Nationals SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Liverpool FC MI | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25 | -23 | 2 | 0.40 | DLD | -1.83 | +0.26 | 0% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 2 | 0.20 | LLLLL | +0.24 | +0.16 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC · Sat Mar 20 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.66 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.