Michigan Hawks Magic
ECNL Girls · Midwest GU13 · 8 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 13, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.5 for, 4.4 against · 0.07 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Hawks Magic | Nationals SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-2-8 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 6 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | W L W |
| Biggest win | — | 8–0 at Michigan Hawks Magic |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs Nationals SC | 0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.83 | +1.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.24 | -1.83 |
Already played this season: Sat Oct 10 0–8 vs Nationals SC (L)
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Nationals SC score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.7.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Nationals SC concede only 0.6/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–2 vs Kansas City Athletics, 0–3 at FC Wisconsin, 0–1 at Chicago Inter, 0–8 vs Nationals SC, 0–1 at Rockford Raptors FC, 0–2 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Liverpool FC MI sit 7th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.20.A point moves us above Liverpool FC MI on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks Magic – Nationals SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.18 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 0.45 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.27 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.18 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th 22%
- 8th 78%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 3.00 (+2.80) | 1st (2.52) | 55 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Michigan Hawks | 2.00 (+1.80) | 3rd (1.98) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Nationals SC | 2.00 (+1.80) | 2nd (2.16) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Chicago Inter | 1.57 (+1.37) | 5th (1.35) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | FC Wisconsin | 1.29 (+1.09) | 4th (1.37) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 6 | Rockford Raptors FC | 0.86 (+0.66) | 6th (1.02) | 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 7 | Liverpool FC MI | 0.40 (+0.20) | 7th (0.55) | A point next game |
How the results connect
1 chain · 2 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks Magic to Nationals SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.16 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Nationals SC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.07 | 0.19 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 02:00 PM |
Michigan Hawks 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +13 |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.21 | 0.19 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 04:00 PM |
Liverpool FC MI 7th · 0-2-3 · GD -23 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM |
MN Thunder Academy |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.48 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 04:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.49 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 04:00 PM |
Chicago Inter 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -2 |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.63 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 12:00 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -5 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.78 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 12:00 PM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–3 | 0.12 | 0.33 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 08:00 AM |
Gretna Elite Academy |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.34 | 0.33 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.48 | -0.17 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Nationals SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Michigan Hawks | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 16 | 2.00 | WDWLW | -0.16 | -0.12 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs Nationals SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Nationals SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WLW | -1.83 | -0.13 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC MI · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 | 1.57 | WLDDW | +0.15 | -0.05 | 48% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | FC Wisconsin | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLWL | -0.49 | +0.01 | 46% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Liverpool FC MI See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | 0.86 | WLLWL | +0.12 | -0.02 | 7% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 at Nationals SC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Liverpool FC MI | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25 | -23 | 2 | 0.40 | DLD | -1.83 | +0.26 | 0% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Michigan Hawks Magic | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 2 | 0.20 | LLLLL | +0.24 | +0.16 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC · Sat Mar 20 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.66 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.