Liverpool FC MI

ECNL Girls · Midwest GU13 · 8 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)

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7th

0-2-4 record · 6 played

0.33 points per game

-28 goal diff · 2–30

DLDLlast 4

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.4

-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:45 AM

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Liverpool FC MI
7th · 0.33 PPG

Nationals SC
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Oakland University Upper Fields, South Field ↗

1% 96%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–4 (expected goals 0.7 for, 5.0 against · 0.06 expected points)

Season so far	Liverpool FC MI	Nationals SC
Position	7th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	0-2-4	3-1-1
Points per game	0.33	2.00
Goals for / game	0.3	2.8
Goals against / game	5.0	0.6
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	L D L D	W L W
Biggest win	—	8–0 at Michigan Hawks Magic
Worst loss	0–10 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy	0–1 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.04	+1.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.07	-1.82

Common opponents: St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green — we 1–1; they 0–1. St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy — we 0–10; they 1–0. Michigan Hawks Magic — we 1–1; they 8–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Nationals SC score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.7.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Nationals SC concede only 0.6/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–10 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy, 0–5 vs Michigan Hawks.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:45 AM at Oakland University Upper Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Nationals SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.29 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Win 0.71 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Draw 0.43 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Loss 0.29 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–4 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

7.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th <1%
6th 2%
7th 55%
8th 43%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Eclipse Select Soccer Club	3.00 (+2.67)	1st (2.52)	58 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Michigan Hawks	2.11 (+1.78)	3rd (2.09)	41 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
3	Nationals SC	2.00 (+1.67)	2nd (2.13)	38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4	Chicago Inter	1.57 (+1.24)	5th (1.38)	30 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5	FC Wisconsin	1.29 (+0.96)	4th (1.39)	24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
6	Rockford Raptors FC	0.86 (+0.53)	6th (1.05)	16 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Nationals SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

2 favour them

-7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.27 · 1st hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM	Nationals SC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +11	Away Oakland University Upper Fields	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.06	0.29	Upside
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17	Home Avondale High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.10	0.27	Upside
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Chicago Inter 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -2	Home Avondale High School	●●●●● Very tough	15%	1–2	0.62	0.31	Upside
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -1	Home Oakland University Upper Fields	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.47	0.33	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Rockford Raptors FC 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -5	Home Avondale High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	19%	0–1	0.77	0.37	Upside
Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM	MN Thunder Academy	Home Avondale High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–2	0.47	0.37	Upside
Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM	Michigan Hawks 2nd · 6-1-2 · GD +18	Away far trip St. Joe's Sports Dome	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–5	0.08	0.35	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Missouri Rush	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–2	0.47	0.36	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	FC Wisconsin 5th · 3-0-4 · GD -1	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.47	0.37	Upside
Sat Apr 10 04:00 PM	Michigan Hawks Magic 8th · 0-2-8 · GD -25	Away far trip St. Joe's Sports Dome	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.30	0.43	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Nationals SC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +11	Home	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.12	0.41	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Eclipse Select Soccer Club 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +17	Away	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.06	0.39	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Chicago Inter 4th · 3-2-2 · GD -2	Away	●●●●● Very tough	10%	0–2	0.44	0.39	Upside
Sun May 16 TBD	Rockford Raptors FC 6th · 2-0-5 · GD -5	Away	●●●●● Very tough	13%	0–2	0.58	0.40	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Eclipse Select Soccer Club

+17

3.00

WWWW

-0.35

-0.23

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Nationals SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	MN Thunder Academy (—)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	4–0	96%
·	Mon May 3	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat May 8	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	2–1	45%
·	Sun May 9	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat May 15	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun May 16	at	FC Wisconsin (5th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks

+18

2.11

DWLWW

-0.48

-0.03

100%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Wisconsin (5th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (—)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	7–1

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Nationals SC · Sat Mar 13 vs Liverpool FC MI · Sat Mar 20 at Michigan Hawks Magic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	MN Thunder Academy (—)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat May 1	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	34%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Sporting Iowa (—)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC

+11

2.00

WLW

-1.82

-0.13

100%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	8–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (—)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (—)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Liverpool FC MI · Sat Oct 31 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MN Thunder Academy (—)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Wisconsin (5th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun May 16	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat May 22	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chicago Inter

-2

1.57

WLDDW

+0.30

-0.09

50%

4.6

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (—)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC · Sun Nov 1 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 21 vs Rockford Raptors FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	MN Thunder Academy (—)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Wisconsin (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wisconsin

-1

1.29

WLLWL

-0.28

-0.03

43%

4.7

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (—)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (—)	1–4
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Sporting Iowa (—)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sat Nov 7 at Liverpool FC MI See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (—)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Mon May 3	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	1–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rockford Raptors FC

-5

0.86

WLLWL

+0.28

-0.07

5.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (—)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Sporting Iowa (—)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Blue Valley · Sun Nov 1 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 at Nationals SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (—)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC Wisconsin (5th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat May 8	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun May 9	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Liverpool FC MI

-28

0.33

DLDL

-0.07

+0.27

7.4

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	0–5
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Navy (—)	0–10
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	St. Louis Scott Gallagher Green (—)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Chicago Inter See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MN Thunder Academy (—)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Michigan Hawks Magic (8th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat May 1	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat May 15	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun May 16	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Michigan Hawks Magic

-25

0.20

LLLLL

+0.23

+0.15

7.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–8
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Chicago Inter (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Wisconsin (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Kansas City Athletics (—)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sporting Blue Valley (—)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	Missouri Rush (—)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 5	at	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	1–7

Next: Sat Mar 13 at Nationals SC · Sat Mar 20 vs Michigan Hawks · Sat Apr 10 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Michigan Hawks (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Liverpool FC MI (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	MN Thunder Academy (—)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Wisconsin (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Chicago Inter (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (6th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun May 16	at	Gretna Elite Academy (—)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.