United Futbol Academy

ECNL Boys · Southeast BU16 · 9 teams · United Futbol Academy (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+2 goal diff · 10–8

WWLWDlast 5

75% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4

+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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United Futbol Academy
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Atlanta Fire United
1st · 2.00 PPG

Notre Dame Academy, Turf ↗ · turf

21% 21% 58%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.1 against · 0.84 expected points)

Season so far	United Futbol Academy	Atlanta Fire United
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	5-1-2
Points per game	2.00	2.00
Goals for / game	2.0	2.1
Goals against / game	1.6	0.9
Clean sheets	0	3
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	D W L W W	L W D W W
Biggest win	2–1 vs NTH NASA	5–0 at CESA Triumph
Worst loss	0–1 at CESA Triumph	1–2 at United Futbol Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.26	+0.85
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.12	-0.10

Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 2–1 vs Atlanta Fire United (W)

Common opponents: NTH NASA — we 2–1; they 1–0. CESA Triumph — we 0–1, 2–2; they 5–0. South Carolina United — we 4–3; they 3–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at CESA Triumph.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Notre Dame Academy.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
CESA Triumph sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.
A point moves us above CESA Triumph on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Atlanta Fire United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United Futbol Academy – Atlanta Fire United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.67 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2
Win 2.17 PPG	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2
Draw 1.83 PPG	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.67 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st

75% top 4

25% below the top 4

3.4 average finish

1st 11%
2nd 16%
3rd 22%
4th 25%
5th 21%
6th 4%
7th 1%
8th <1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Atlanta Fire United	2.00 (+0.00)	1st (2.00)	A point next game
2	CESA Triumph	2.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.84)	A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link United Futbol Academy to Atlanta Fire United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

5 even

14 favour them

-0.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 6th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Atlanta Fire United 1st · 5-1-2 · GD +10	Away Notre Dame Academy · turf	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.84	1.81	Upside
Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM	NTH NASA 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -2	Away Franklin Gateway Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–1	1.50	1.76	Upside
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +0	Away far trip Georgia Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.38	1.72	Upside
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -6	Away far trip Shea Family Fields	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–1	1.92	1.74	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -6	Home Fowler Park	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–0	2.14	1.78	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	South Carolina United 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -9	Home Fowler Park	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	1.81	Swing game
Wed Nov 18 07:15 PM	Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +7	Away far trip ATLANTA INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–2	1.03	1.75	Upside
Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM	GSA 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -6	Away Rabbit Hill Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	1–1	1.87	1.76	Swing game
Sat Dec 19 11:00 AM	GSA 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -6	Home Fowler Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	1.78	Swing game
Sat Jan 9 11:00 AM	Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +7	Home Fowler Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–2	1.31	1.75	Upside
Sun Jan 10 11:00 AM	Concorde Fire Premier 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +0	Home Fowler Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.65	1.74	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Atlanta Fire United

+10

2.00

WWDWL

-0.10

-0.12

97%

1.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	South Carolina United (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	GSA (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sun Nov 1 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GSA (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	NTH NASA (7th)	1–0	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CESA Triumph

2.00

WWLWD

+0.08

-0.17

88%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 17	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	GSA (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at GSA · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	GSA (8th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Carolina United (6th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	NTH NASA (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–0	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United Futbol Academy

2.00

WWLWD

+0.12

-0.12

75%

3.4

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	South Carolina United (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NTH NASA (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Wed Nov 18	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	GSA (8th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	GSA (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2	37%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Platinum

1.86

WWLLD

-0.00

-0.13

91%

2.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	NTH NASA (7th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs GSA · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Triumph See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	GSA (8th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	South Carolina United (6th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–1	35%
·	Wed Nov 18	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	2–1	42%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	GSA (8th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Concorde Fire Premier

1.71

LWWLW

+0.15

-0.14

46%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	NTH NASA (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	GSA (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	4–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Carolina United (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	GSA (8th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina United

-9

1.13

WLWLW

+0.06

+0.08

7.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	GSA (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	GSA (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	NTH NASA (7th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NTH NASA

-2

0.88

LLWWD

+0.02

+0.01

6.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	South Carolina United (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	GSA (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GSA · Sun Oct 25 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GSA (8th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–0	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GSA

-6

0.67

WLLDL

-0.08

+0.15

7.9

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	South Carolina United (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 24 at NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NTH NASA (7th)	0–1	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	South Carolina Surf (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Carolina Surf

-6

0.40

LDLDL

-0.04

+0.11

8.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	South Carolina United (6th)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	NTH NASA (7th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	GSA (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 vs NTH NASA See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Concorde Fire Platinum (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NTH NASA (7th)	0–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Atlanta Fire United (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	United Futbol Academy (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	GSA (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	CESA Triumph (2nd)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	South Carolina United (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	CESA Triumph (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Concorde Fire Premier (5th)	0–1	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.