Concorde Fire Premier
ECNL Boys · Southeast BU16 · 9 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 1 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 0.9 against · 1.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Concorde Fire Premier | South Carolina Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-3 | 0-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 0.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W L | L D L D L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs South Carolina United | — |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs CESA Triumph | 1–4 vs Concorde Fire Platinum |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.05 | -0.70 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.15 | -0.04 |
Common opponents: South Carolina United — we 4–1; they 0–1. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 0–3, 2–1; they 1–4. GSA — we 2–0; they 1–1. NTH NASA — we 0–1; they 1–3. Atlanta Fire United — we 2–1; they 0–0.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
South Carolina Surf average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.5); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Concorde Fire Platinum, 0–1 at NTH NASA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 23% / loss 18%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Concorde Fire Platinum sit 4th on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.71.A point moves us above Concorde Fire Platinum on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the South Carolina Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – South Carolina Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.88 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 3%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 39%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 2%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Fire United | 2.00 (+0.29) | 1st (2.00) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 2 | CESA Triumph | 2.00 (+0.29) | 3rd (1.84) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 2.00 (+0.29) | 4th (1.74) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.86 (+0.15) | 2nd (1.86) | A point next game |
How the results connect
32 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Premier to South Carolina Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -6 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 1.99 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
South Carolina United 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Southeastern Freight Lines Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 1.71 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
CESA Triumph 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Atlanta Fire United 1st · 5-1-2 · GD +10 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.98 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
NTH NASA 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -2 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 9 03:00 PM |
GSA 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
GSA East |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 10 11:00 AM |
United Futbol Academy 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Fowler Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 9th · 0-2-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–0 | 1.77 | 1.59 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Atlanta Fire United | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 16 | 2.00 | WWDWL | -0.10 | -0.12 | 97% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sun Nov 1 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | CESA Triumph | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 16 | 2.00 | WWLWD | +0.08 | -0.17 | 87% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at GSA · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina United · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United Futbol Academy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | WWLWD | +0.12 | -0.12 | 73% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlanta Fire United · Sun Oct 25 at NTH NASA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLLD | -0.00 | -0.13 | 88% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs GSA · Sat Nov 7 at CESA Triumph See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Concorde Fire Premier | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 12 | 1.71 | LWWLW | +0.15 | -0.14 | 50% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Nov 7 at South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina United | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 9 | 1.13 | WLWLW | +0.06 | +0.08 | 1% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Nov 7 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Concorde Fire Platinum See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NTH NASA | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | 0.88 | LLWWD | +0.02 | +0.01 | 3% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GSA · Sun Oct 25 vs United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at South Carolina Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLDL | -0.08 | +0.15 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs CESA Triumph · Sat Oct 24 at NTH NASA · Sun Oct 25 at Atlanta Fire United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | South Carolina Surf | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 | 0.40 | LDLDL | -0.04 | +0.11 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Oct 25 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Oct 31 vs NTH NASA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.