WNY Flash
ECNL Boys · Ohio Valley BU13 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 14, 10:45 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 5.0 for, 1.0 against · 2.84 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash | FC Pride Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 0-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 0.25 |
| Goals for / game | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.1 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W L | L D L L |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Cleveland Force SC | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Ohio Premier | 0–9 vs Nationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.73 | -1.63 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.03 | +0.11 |
Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 5–0; they 1–2. Ohio Premier — we 1–3; they 2–2. Ohio Elite SA — we 7–1; they 1–3. Nationals SC — we 2–3; they 0–9.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
FC Pride Elite average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 1 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
FC Pride Elite concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–9 vs Nationals SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 4–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Pride Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – FC Pride Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 94%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 3.00 (+0.86) | 1st (2.87) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
22 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link WNY Flash to FC Pride Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.41 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 14 10:45 AM |
FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -12 |
Home Flash Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 2.26 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Nationals SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +35 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 03:30 PM |
Ohio Premier 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.13 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:30 PM |
Ohio Elite SA 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -28 |
Home Sahlen's Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 2.19 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
RNY FC Youth 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 2.21 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 2.21 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | +35 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | -0.42 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Mar 14 at Ohio Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | WNY Flash | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLWW | -0.03 | -0.41 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Apr 3 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Apr 4 at FC Pride Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.12 | -0.18 | 80% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.42 | +0.21 | 47% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Nov 7 vs RNY FC Youth · Sat Mar 6 vs Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WDLLL | +0.40 | -0.27 | 31% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.29 | -0.20 | 42% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | RNY FC Youth | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.43 | -0.10 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Pride Elite See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Nationals SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.11 | +0.18 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.