Ohio Elite SA
ECNL Boys · Ohio Valley BU13 · 9 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 9 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.9 against · 0.51 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Elite SA | Ohio Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-6 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 0.43 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 4.9 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L L L D W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 vs FC Pride Elite | 3–0 vs RNY FC Youth |
| Worst loss | 0–9 at Nationals SC | 1–3 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.60 | -0.05 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.37 | +0.40 |
Common opponents: RNY FC Youth — we 1–2; they 3–0. WNY Flash — we 1–7; they 3–1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 1–6; they 1–3. FC Pride Elite — we 3–1; they 2–2. Nationals SC — we 0–9; they 0–2. Cleveland Force SC — we 0–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Louisville City Academy, 0–9 at Nationals SC, 0–3 at Cleveland Force SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 12%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Ohio Premier have lost 3 straight (form: WDLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
-
What a win does
RNY FC Youth sit 7th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.43.A point moves us above RNY FC Youth on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA – Ohio Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.38 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.50 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.38 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 23%
- 9th 74%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 3.00 (+2.57) | 1st (2.87) | 45 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | WNY Flash | 2.14 (+1.71) | 2nd (2.21) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 2.00 (+1.57) | 3rd (1.71) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.67 (+1.24) | 4th (1.48) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | Ohio Premier | 1.17 (+0.74) | 6th (1.36) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 1.00 (+0.57) | 5th (1.41) | 13 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 7 | RNY FC Youth | 0.67 (+0.24) | 7th (0.88) | A point next game |
How the results connect
30 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Elite SA to Ohio Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 1st hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Ohio Premier 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.51 | 0.44 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 05:30 PM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.39 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 10:00 AM |
Nationals SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +35 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.40 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.30 | 0.42 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
RNY FC Youth 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.64 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 12:30 PM |
WNY Flash 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Sahlen's Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.04 | 0.41 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
Ohio Premier 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
OP Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–3 | 0.34 | 0.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | +35 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | -0.42 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Mar 14 at Ohio Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | WNY Flash | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLWW | -0.03 | -0.41 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Apr 3 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Apr 4 at FC Pride Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.12 | -0.18 | 80% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.42 | +0.21 | 47% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Nov 7 vs RNY FC Youth · Sat Mar 6 vs Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WDLLL | +0.40 | -0.27 | 31% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.29 | -0.20 | 42% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | RNY FC Youth | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.43 | -0.10 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Pride Elite See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Nationals SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.11 | +0.18 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.