FC Pride Elite
ECNL Boys · Ohio Valley BU13 · 9 teams · FC Pride (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility, Field 4 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.2 against · 0.48 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Pride Elite | Louisville City Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-3 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per game | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L L | D L L W D |
| Biggest win | — | 6–0 vs Ohio Elite SA |
| Worst loss | 0–9 vs Nationals SC | 1–4 vs Nationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.63 | +0.16 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.11 | +0.29 |
Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 1–2; they 1–1. Nationals SC — we 0–9; they 1–4. Ohio Elite SA — we 1–3; they 6–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 vs Nationals SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 12%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Ohio Elite SA sit 8th on 0.43 PPG; we are on 0.25.A point moves us above Ohio Elite SA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Louisville City Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Pride Elite – Louisville City Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.20 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
| Win 0.80 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 0.40 PPG |
9th— holds | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Loss 0.20 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 18%
- 8th 58%
- 9th 22%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 3.00 (+2.75) | 1st (2.87) | 47 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | WNY Flash | 2.14 (+1.89) | 2nd (2.21) | 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 2.00 (+1.75) | 3rd (1.71) | 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.67 (+1.42) | 4th (1.48) | 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 5 | Ohio Premier | 1.17 (+0.92) | 6th (1.36) | 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 1.00 (+0.75) | 5th (1.41) | 15 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | RNY FC Youth | 0.67 (+0.42) | 7th (0.88) | A point next game |
| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 0.43 (+0.18) | 9th (0.40) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link FC Pride Elite to Louisville City Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.18 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.30 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Ohio Premier 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.74 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
RNY FC Youth 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Rochester Institute of Technology |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.02 | 0.51 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 10:45 AM |
WNY Flash 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Flash Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.12 | 0.46 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -28 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 0.62 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
RNY FC Youth 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.31 | 0.68 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
WNY Flash 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +18 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.20 | 0.64 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Nationals SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +35 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.02 | 0.60 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.50 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Highmark Stadium · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.69 | 0.59 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | +35 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | -0.42 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Mar 14 at Ohio Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | WNY Flash | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLWW | -0.03 | -0.41 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Apr 3 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Apr 4 at FC Pride Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.12 | -0.18 | 80% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.42 | +0.21 | 49% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Nov 7 vs RNY FC Youth · Sat Mar 6 vs Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WDLLL | +0.40 | -0.27 | 32% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.29 | -0.20 | 39% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | RNY FC Youth | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.43 | -0.10 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Pride Elite See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Nationals SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.11 | +0.18 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.