Ohio Premier
ECNL Boys · Ohio Valley BU13 · 9 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 9 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.1 against · 2.35 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Premier | Ohio Elite SA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-3 | 1-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 0.43 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 4.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D W | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs RNY FC Youth | 3–1 vs FC Pride Elite |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0–9 at Nationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.05 | -2.60 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.40 | +0.37 |
Common opponents: WNY Flash — we 3–1; they 1–7. RNY FC Youth — we 3–0; they 1–2. FC Pride Elite — we 2–2; they 3–1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 1–3; they 1–6. Cleveland Force SC — we 0–2; they 0–3. Nationals SC — we 0–2; they 0–9.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Ohio Elite SA average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Ohio Elite SA concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–9 at Nationals SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Cleveland Force SC, 0–2 at Nationals SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 2–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Ohio Elite Training Center.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier – Ohio Elite SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.43 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.43 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.14 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 21%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 35%
- 7th 6%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nationals SC | 3.00 (+1.83) | 1st (2.87) | 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | WNY Flash | 2.14 (+0.97) | 2nd (2.21) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 2.00 (+0.83) | 3rd (1.71) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.67 (+0.50) | 4th (1.48) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
How the results connect
30 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Ohio Premier to Ohio Elite SA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.27 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.35 | 1.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
FC Pride Elite 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 10:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 10:00 AM |
Nationals SC 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +35 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.29 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 03:30 PM |
WNY Flash 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +18 |
Away far trip
Flash Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.52 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
RNY FC Youth 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.75 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
Ohio Elite SA 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -28 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–0 | 2.54 | 1.36 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 6th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.40 | 1.36 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Nationals SC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | +35 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.52 | -0.42 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Mar 14 at Ohio Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | WNY Flash | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 15 | 2.14 | LWLWW | -0.03 | -0.41 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 14 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Apr 3 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Apr 4 at FC Pride Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cleveland Force SC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWW | +0.12 | -0.18 | 80% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.42 | +0.21 | 49% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Nov 7 vs RNY FC Youth · Sat Mar 6 vs Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Ohio Premier | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | WDLLL | +0.40 | -0.27 | 32% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisville City Academy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DWLLD | +0.29 | -0.20 | 39% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | RNY FC Youth | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLD | +0.43 | -0.10 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Pride Elite See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Ohio Elite SA | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 34 | -28 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | +0.37 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Nationals SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Pride Elite | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.11 | +0.18 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.