XF 2
ECNL Boys · Northwest BU14 · 9 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:30 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.0 against · 1.85 expected points)
| Season so far | XF 2 | Snohomish United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-5 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–9 vs XF 1 | 0–11 vs Eastside FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.61 | -4.30 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.83 | +1.20 |
Common opponents: Eastside FC — we 1–4; they 0–11. XF 1 — we 0–6, 0–9; they 0–9. Seattle United — we 0–7; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Snohomish United average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 5 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Snohomish United concede 7.3/game; worst result 0–11 vs Eastside FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–6 vs XF 1, 0–7 vs Seattle United, 0–8 at Columbia Premier SC, 0–9 vs XF 1.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 18% / loss 27%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
Snohomish United have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Snohomish United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF 2 – Snohomish United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 0.50 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 0.50 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.17 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th 73%
- 9th 27%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle United | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.49) | 72 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Eastside FC | 2.60 (+2.60) | 2nd (2.17) | 63 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection |
| 3 | XF 1 | 1.86 (+1.86) | 3rd (1.96) | 45 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection |
| 4 | Washington Premier | 1.80 (+1.80) | 7th (1.42) | 44 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 5 | 3RSC | 1.50 (+1.50) | 5th (1.51) | 36 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 6 | Columbia Premier SC | 1.40 (+1.40) | 4th (1.54) | 34 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection |
| 7 | PacNW SC | 1.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.45) | 24 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
How the results connect
19 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link XF 2 to Snohomish United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Home Marymoor Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 0.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
3RSC 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.08 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:30 PM |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Marymoor Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–4 | 0.19 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 06:00 AM |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.01 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.14 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.24 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 09:00 AM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.53 | 0.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.11 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
Eastside FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Away PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.02 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
3RSC 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.15 | 0.28 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.11 | 0.27 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
XF 1 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +25 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–7 | 0.03 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.53 | 0.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Eastside FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
3RSC 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.15 | 0.30 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.14 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–5 | 0.02 | 0.27 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Seattle United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.05 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Washington Premier See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eastside FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -1.19 | +0.02 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 at XF 1 See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | XF 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 13 | 1.86 | WLLWW | -1.13 | +0.10 | 97% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at PacNW SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Washington Premier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | -0.17 | +0.03 | 15% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | 3RSC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLL | +0.50 | -0.22 | 29% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 2 · Sat Dec 5 vs Snohomish United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Columbia Premier SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | LDLWW | +0.08 | -0.17 | 37% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PacNW SC · Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United · Sun Nov 8 at Snohomish United See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PacNW SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.17 | -0.06 | 23% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Oct 25 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 1 See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | XF 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 34 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.83 | +0.08 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sun Nov 1 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 8 vs PacNW SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Snohomish United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.20 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at XF 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.