Columbia Premier SC
ECNL Boys · Northwest BU14 · 9 teams · Columbia Premier Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Shoreline A/B fields, Field B ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.8 against · 0.47 expected points)
| Season so far | Columbia Premier SC | Seattle United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-2 | 5-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L D L | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs XF 2 | 7–0 at XF 2 |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Eastside FC | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.72 | +2.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.08 | -1.05 |
Common opponents: XF 1 — we 2–2; they 4–0. 3RSC — we 1–2; they 2–0. XF 2 — we 8–0; they 7–0.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Seattle United score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Seattle United concede only 0.0/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
They arrive in form
Seattle United have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Shoreline A/B fields.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
3RSC sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.40.A point moves us above 3RSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Seattle United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Columbia Premier SC – Seattle United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 2 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 33%
- 5th 25%
- 6th 21%
- 7th 15%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle United | 3.00 (+1.60) | 1st (2.49) | 65 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection |
| 2 | Eastside FC | 2.60 (+1.20) | 2nd (2.17) | 56 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 3 | XF 1 | 1.86 (+0.46) | 3rd (1.96) | 38 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 4 | Washington Premier | 1.80 (+0.40) | 7th (1.42) | 37 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 5 | 3RSC | 1.50 (+0.10) | 5th (1.51) | A point next game |
How the results connect
19 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Columbia Premier SC to Seattle United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.17 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 26 03:00 PM no score posted |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Starfire Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.37 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Shoreline A/B fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.47 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.90 | 1.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 05:00 PM |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
XF 1 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.68 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 TBD |
XF 2 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -33 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
5–1 | 2.83 | 1.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Home Harmony Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
3RSC 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home Harmony Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 1.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
3RSC 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.37 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Home Harmony Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
6–0 | 2.95 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
XF 2 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -33 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
5–1 | 2.83 | 1.61 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Eastside FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
XF 1 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.68 | 1.54 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.05 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Washington Premier See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Eastside FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -1.19 | +0.02 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 at XF 1 See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | XF 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 13 | 1.86 | WLLWW | -1.13 | +0.10 | 97% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at PacNW SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Washington Premier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | -0.17 | +0.03 | 14% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | 3RSC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLL | +0.50 | -0.22 | 28% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 2 · Sat Dec 5 vs Snohomish United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Columbia Premier SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | LDLWW | +0.08 | -0.17 | 39% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PacNW SC · Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United · Sun Nov 8 at Snohomish United See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | PacNW SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.17 | -0.06 | 22% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Oct 25 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 1 See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | XF 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 34 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.83 | +0.08 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sun Nov 1 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 8 vs PacNW SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Snohomish United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.20 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at XF 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.