3RSC
ECNL Boys · Northwest BU14 · 9 teams · Three Rivers Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM
Southridge HS Stadium (Turf), Field 1 ↗ · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.1 against · 1.51 expected points)
| Season so far | 3RSC | PacNW SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-3 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W L | D L L W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 at Snohomish United | 8–0 vs Snohomish United |
| Worst loss | 0–6 at XF 1 | 0–4 at Seattle United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.40 | +0.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.50 | +0.17 |
Common opponents: Washington Premier — we 5–1; they 0–1. Seattle United — we 0–2; they 0–4. Snohomish United — we 9–0; they 8–0. Eastside FC — we 1–4; they 1–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Seattle United, 0–6 at XF 1.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 44% / draw 20% / loss 37%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (3RSC – PacNW SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.43 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 28%
- 6th 24%
- 7th 19%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle United | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.49) | 63 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection |
| 2 | Eastside FC | 2.60 (+1.10) | 2nd (2.17) | 54 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 3 | XF 1 | 1.86 (+0.36) | 3rd (1.96) | 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 4 | Washington Premier | 1.80 (+0.30) | 7th (1.42) | 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
How the results connect
15 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link 3RSC to PacNW SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Home Southridge HS Stadium (Turf) · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.51 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
XF 2 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -33 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.89 | 1.67 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.52 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 10:00 AM |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.39 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
XF 1 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +25 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.77 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 01:00 PM |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
XF 2 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -33 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.79 | 1.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
2–2 | 1.39 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Snohomish United 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -43 |
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
5–1 | 2.88 | 1.61 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Washington Premier 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
XF 1 3rd · 4-1-2 · GD +25 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.77 | 1.56 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
XF 2 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -33 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.79 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Seattle United 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.53 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC 2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.52 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
PacNW SC 7th · 1-1-2 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.20 | 1.51 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Seattle United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.05 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Washington Premier See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eastside FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -1.19 | +0.02 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 at XF 1 See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | XF 1 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 13 | 1.86 | WLLWW | -1.13 | +0.10 | 97% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at PacNW SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Washington Premier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | -0.17 | +0.03 | 15% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | 3RSC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLL | +0.50 | -0.22 | 29% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 2 · Sat Dec 5 vs Snohomish United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Columbia Premier SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | LDLWW | +0.08 | -0.17 | 37% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PacNW SC · Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United · Sun Nov 8 at Snohomish United See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PacNW SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 4 | 1.00 | WLLD | +0.17 | -0.06 | 23% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Oct 25 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 1 See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | XF 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 34 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.83 | +0.08 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sun Nov 1 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 8 vs PacNW SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Snohomish United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.20 | +0.32 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at XF 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.51 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.