Colorado Storm Central
ECNL Boys · Mountain BU15 · 6 teams · Colorado Storm (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 30, 09:00 AM
Judge Memorial High School, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.5 against · 0.71 expected points)
| Season so far | Colorado Storm Central | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | W L W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 5–0 vs CCV STARS |
| Worst loss | — | 1–3 at Arizona Arsenal |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.99 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | -0.31 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Avalanche score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Judge Memorial High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Colorado Rush sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Colorado Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Storm Central – Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Jan 25 – Sun Jan 31); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 4 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 5%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd 24%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avalanche | 2.40 (+2.40) | 1st (2.21) | A point next game |
| 2 | Arizona Arsenal | 1.50 (+1.50) | 2nd (1.65) | A point next game |
| 3 | La Roca FC | 1.40 (+1.40) | 5th (1.28) | A point next game |
| 4 | CCV STARS | 0.67 (+0.67) | 6th (0.73) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Colorado Rush | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.43) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
7 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 30 09:00 AM |
Avalanche 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Judge Memorial High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
La Roca FC 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 11:15 AM |
Avalanche 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +9 |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 11:15 AM |
La Roca FC 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD -3 |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.76 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:15 AM |
Real Colorado National |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 01:30 PM |
Pride SC |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
CCV STARS 4th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
West Valley Events Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.96 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Arizona Arsenal 2nd · 3-0-3 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.95 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM |
CCV STARS 4th · 1-1-4 · GD -11 |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.19 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM |
Arizona Arsenal 2nd · 3-0-3 · GD +5 |
Home Dick's Sporting Goods Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–2 | 1.22 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 01:30 PM |
Colorado Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Addenbrooke Classical |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.42 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Avalanche | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.31 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B11/12 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Arizona Arsenal | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWWW | -0.16 | +0.00 | 95% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Mar 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado EDGE See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWDL | -0.04 | +0.14 | 66% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive B11/12 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | CCV STARS | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDLL | +0.38 | +0.00 | 5% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Mar 14 vs Real Colorado National · Sat Mar 20 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs El Paso Locomotive B11/12 · Sat Jan 30 at La Roca FC · Sun Jan 31 at Avalanche See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Colorado Storm Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 30 at Avalanche · Sun Jan 31 at La Roca FC · Sat Feb 20 vs Avalanche See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.