Tennessee SC

ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU16 · 10 teams · Tennessee SC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.

Add schedule to calendar

1st

8-1-0 record · 9 played

2.78 points per game

+21 goal diff · 22–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4

-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Tennessee SC
1st · 2.78 PPG

Tennessee United SC
8th · 0.78 PPG

Drakes Creek Park (DCP), Field 4 ↗ far trip

77% 15%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.46 expected points)

Season so far	Tennessee SC	Tennessee United SC
Position	1st	8th
Record (W-D-L)	8-1-0	2-1-6
Points per game	2.78	0.78
Goals for / game	2.4	1.9
Goals against / game	0.1	2.2
Clean sheets	8	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L W W L
Biggest win	6–0 at FC Alliance TN	4–0 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Worst loss	—	1–6 vs Louisiana Fire SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.65	-0.21
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.12	+0.06

Already played this season: Sat Aug 22 2–0 vs Tennessee United SC (W)

Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 3–1; they 1–2. Germantown Legends — we 2–0; they 3–3. Louisiana Fire SC — we 0–0; they 1–6. Mississippi Rush United — we 2–0; they 1–2. FC Alliance TN — we 6–0; they 4–0. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 3–0; they 4–0. Coastal Rush — we 3–0; they 3–4. Alabama FC — we 1–0; they 0–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Louisiana Fire SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 05:00 PM at Drakes Creek Park (DCP).
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee United SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC – Tennessee United SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.80 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.80 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.60 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.50 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

74% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.4 average finish

1st 74%
2nd 19%
3rd 6%
4th 1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

73 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Tennessee SC to Tennessee United SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

54 favour us

7 even

12 favour them

+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 10th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM	Tennessee United SC 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -3	Away far trip Drakes Creek Park (DCP)	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.46	2.75	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 7th · 4-1-7 · GD -9	Home Richard Siegel Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.70	2.74	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 09:30 AM	FC Alliance TN 10th · 0-2-10 · GD -38	Home Bethesda Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	3–0	2.92	2.76	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +21	Away far trip Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.77	2.68	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM	Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-0-5 · GD -3	Away far trip Freedom Ridge Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	1–0	2.34	2.66	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	Coastal Rush 3rd · 8-1-1 · GD +16	Away far trip Ashton Brosnaham	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	1–0	2.04	2.62	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	Alabama FC 2nd · 10-0-2 · GD +24	Away far trip Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF)	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–0	1.63	2.55	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM	Germantown Legends 9th · 0-2-7 · GD -24	Home Bethesda Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	3–0	2.90	2.57	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM	Lobos Rush 6th · 3-1-5 · GD -5	Home Bethesda Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	1–0	2.50	2.57	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tennessee SC

+21

2.78

WWWWW

-0.12

-0.15

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee United SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	3–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–0	95%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–0	77%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Alabama FC

+24

2.50

WWLWL

-0.30

+0.34

100%

2.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	5–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 at Lobos Rush See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Rush

+16

2.50

WWLWW

-0.46

+0.51

100%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	4–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	4–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 24 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Germantown Legends See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisiana Fire SC

+21

2.29

LDWWW

-0.35

-0.08

100%

2.8

W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	11–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	6–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	6–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	6–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	3–2	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	2–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mississippi Rush United

-3

1.33

WLLWL

+0.03

+0.12

5.7

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–0	42%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	8%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lobos Rush

-5

1.11

WLLWD

-0.01

+0.08

6.7

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	0–1
W	Thu Sep 10	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

-9

1.08

LLWLW

+0.02

+0.13

6.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	6–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee SC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee United SC

-3

0.78

LWWLL

+0.06

6.9

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	3–1	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Germantown Legends

-24

0.22

LLLDL

+0.16

+0.25

9.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	2–6
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Alliance TN (10th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Thu Sep 10	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	3–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 31 at Louisiana Fire SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Alliance TN (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Alliance TN

-38

0.17

LLLDD

+0.31

+0.13

9.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Lobos Rush (6th)	0–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Germantown Legends (9th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Tennessee United SC (8th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	1–11
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Rush (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (7th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Alabama FC (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Coastal Rush (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee United SC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Louisiana Fire SC (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mississippi Rush United (5th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tennessee United SC (8th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Germantown Legends (9th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Lobos Rush (6th)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.