Louisiana Fire SC
ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU16 · 10 teams · Louisiana Fire SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Tommy Shumpert, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.4 for, 0.6 against · 2.94 expected points)
| Season so far | Louisiana Fire SC | FC Alliance TN |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-1-1 | 0-2-10 |
| Points per game | 2.29 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 8 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W D L | D D L L L |
| Biggest win | 11–1 vs FC Alliance TN | — |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs Alabama FC | 1–11 at Louisiana Fire SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.93 | -2.32 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.35 | +0.31 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 11–1 vs FC Alliance TN (W)
Common opponents: Lobos Rush — we 2–1; they 0–0. Germantown Legends — we 6–1; they 0–0. Alabama FC — we 1–4; they 0–5, 0–4. Tennessee SC — we 0–0; they 0–6. Tennessee United SC — we 6–1; they 0–4. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 4–1; they 1–3, 1–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Alliance TN average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 8 of 12.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
FC Alliance TN concede 3.5/game; worst result 1–11 at Louisiana Fire SC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Tennessee SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 5–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Tommy Shumpert.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Alliance TN game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Louisiana Fire SC – FC Alliance TN) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.38 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.38 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 2.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 9%
- 2nd 29%
- 3rd 38%
- 4th 25%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.72 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 2.78 (+0.49) | 1st (2.57) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 2 | Alabama FC | 2.50 (+0.21) | 2nd (2.34) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | Coastal Rush | 2.50 (+0.21) | 4th (2.10) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
74 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Louisiana Fire SC to FC Alliance TN through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 9th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 09:00 AM no score posted |
Alabama FC 2nd · 10-0-2 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Dunnavant Valley Fields (DVF) |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.20 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 10th · 0-2-10 · GD -38 |
Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.94 | 2.24 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 08:30 AM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 7th · 4-1-7 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
Camp Jordan Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.53 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 9th · 0-2-7 · GD -24 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–0 | 2.94 | 2.33 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 6th · 3-1-5 · GD -5 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–0 | 2.55 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM |
Tennessee SC 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +21 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 2.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -3 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 28 03:00 PM |
Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-0-5 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 01:00 PM |
Coastal Rush 3rd · 8-1-1 · GD +16 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.02 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-0-5 · GD -3 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Coastal Rush 3rd · 8-1-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Ashton Brosnaham |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.69 | 2.23 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWWW | -0.12 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee United SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 | 2.50 | WWLWL | -0.30 | +0.34 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 at Lobos Rush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Coastal Rush | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 14 | +16 | 25 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.46 | +0.51 | 100% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 24 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Germantown Legends See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Louisiana Fire SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 16 | 2.29 | LDWWW | -0.35 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mississippi Rush United | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 | 1.33 | WLLWL | +0.03 | +0.12 | 0% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 | 1.11 | WLLWD | -0.01 | +0.08 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves SC | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 13 | 1.08 | LLWLW | +0.02 | +0.13 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Tennessee United SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 7 | 0.78 | LWWLL | +0.06 | +0.06 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Germantown Legends | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 2 | 0.22 | LLLDL | +0.16 | +0.25 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 31 at Louisiana Fire SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Alliance TN | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 42 | -38 | 2 | 0.17 | LLLDD | +0.31 | +0.13 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee United SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.