Lobos Rush
ECNL Boys · Mid-America BU16 · 10 teams · Lobos Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.1 against · 0.76 expected points)
| Season so far | Lobos Rush | Coastal Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.11 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L L W | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at Germantown Legends | 7–0 vs Germantown Legends |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at Alabama FC | 0–3 at Tennessee SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.41 | +1.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.01 | -0.46 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 0–1 at Coastal Rush (L)
Common opponents: Mississippi Rush United — we 0–2; they 3–1. Tennessee SC — we 1–3; they 0–3. Tennessee United SC — we 2–1; they 4–3. Germantown Legends — we 3–1; they 7–0. Alabama FC — we 0–3; they 4–2. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC — we 1–0; they 2–2, 3–2. FC Alliance TN — we 0–0; they 2–0, 4–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Coastal Rush score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 vs Mississippi Rush United, 0–1 at Coastal Rush, 0–3 at Alabama FC, 0–0 vs FC Alliance TN.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Coastal Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lobos Rush – Coastal Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.30 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.10 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th 16%
- 6th 26%
- 7th 27%
- 8th 31%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 2.78 (+1.67) | 1st (2.57) | 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Alabama FC | 2.50 (+1.39) | 2nd (2.34) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Coastal Rush | 2.50 (+1.39) | 4th (2.10) | 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Louisiana Fire SC | 2.29 (+1.18) | 3rd (2.23) | 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Mississippi Rush United | 1.33 (+0.22) | 5th (1.28) | 14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
How the results connect
84 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Lobos Rush to Coastal Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Coastal Rush 3rd · 8-1-1 · GD +16 |
Home Progress Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.76 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Alabama FC 2nd · 10-0-2 · GD +24 |
Home Progress Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–1 | 0.57 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 5th · 4-0-5 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Freedom Ridge Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
0–1 | 1.14 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Louisiana Fire SC 4th · 5-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–3 | 0.34 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Germantown Legends 9th · 0-2-7 · GD -24 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
1–0 | 2.12 | 1.07 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC 7th · 4-1-7 · GD -9 |
Away far trip
CSLA |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
FC Alliance TN 10th · 0-2-10 · GD -38 |
Away far trip
Tommy Shumpert |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
1–0 | 2.17 | 1.14 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.06 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Tennessee SC 1st · 8-1-0 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
Bethesda Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–1 | 0.33 | 1.09 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee SC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 25 | 2.78 | WWWWW | -0.12 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee United SC · Sat Oct 31 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Alabama FC | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 9 | +24 | 30 | 2.50 | WWLWL | -0.30 | +0.34 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 24 at Germantown Legends · Sun Oct 25 at Lobos Rush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Coastal Rush | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 14 | +16 | 25 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.46 | +0.51 | 100% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 24 at Lobos Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Germantown Legends See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Louisiana Fire SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 16 | 2.29 | LDWWW | -0.35 | -0.08 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 24 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 25 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Mississippi Rush United | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 | 1.33 | WLLWL | +0.03 | +0.12 | 0% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 24 at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC · Sun Oct 25 at FC Alliance TN See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lobos Rush | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 | 1.11 | WLLWD | -0.01 | +0.08 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 at Mississippi Rush United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves SC | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 13 | 1.08 | LLWLW | +0.02 | +0.13 | 0% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sun Oct 25 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Tennessee United SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 7 | 0.78 | LWWLL | +0.06 | +0.06 | 0% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Nov 1 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Germantown Legends | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 2 | 0.22 | LLLDL | +0.16 | +0.25 | 0% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Alabama FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Coastal Rush · Sat Oct 31 at Louisiana Fire SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Alliance TN | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 42 | -38 | 2 | 0.17 | LLLDD | +0.31 | +0.13 | 0% | 9.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Mississippi Rush United · Sat Oct 31 at Tennessee United SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.82 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.