PSG Academy DFW
Elite Academy League · Texas U16 · 9 teams · PSG Academy DFW (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM
Harmon Field Park, Herrera Soccer Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 3.0 against · 1.68 expected points)
| Season so far | PSG Academy DFW | ALBION SC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W W | W D L W W |
| Biggest win | 14–0 vs Steel United TX | 10–5 vs Steel United TX |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs BTX SC | 1–2 vs BTX SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.14 | +1.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.89 | -0.45 |
Common opponents: BVBIA DFW — we 1–4; they 3–3. Steel United TX — we 6–2, 14–0; they 10–5. ALBION SC Dallas (1) — we 3–1; they 3–1, 6–2. BTX SC — we 1–5; they 1–2. CF10 Houston FC — we 2–1; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
ALBION SC Dallas score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 16% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Dallas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSG Academy DFW – ALBION SC Dallas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.14 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.14 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.86 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.71 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd 30%
- 4th 31%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 7%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTX SC | 2.50 (+0.50) | 1st (2.29) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | BVBIA DFW | 2.33 (+0.33) | 2nd (2.28) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | ALBION SC Dallas | 2.17 (+0.17) | 3rd (1.85) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
30 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link PSG Academy DFW to ALBION SC Dallas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.43 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home Harmon Field Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
3–2 | 1.68 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 AM |
Atletico Dallas 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
BVBIA DFW 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +19 |
Away Beacon Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
3–3 | 1.30 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM |
Atletico Dallas 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.90 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
BTX SC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +9 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–3 | 0.99 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
CF10 Houston FC 7th · 0-1-3 · GD -6 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.07 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas (1) 6th · 1-2-5 · GD -10 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
4–1 | 2.51 | 1.77 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 10:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas (2) 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
3–2 | 1.77 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 11:00 AM |
ALBION SC Dallas (2) 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–2 | 2.12 | 1.79 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTX SC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | +0.84 | -0.48 | 99% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Dallas · Sun Nov 8 at Steel United TX · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | BVBIA DFW | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 14 | 2.33 | WDWWD | -0.11 | -0.26 | 99% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sun Nov 15 vs PSG Academy DFW · Sun Nov 22 vs Steel United TX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | ALBION SC Dallas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWLDW | -0.45 | +0.19 | 80% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at PSG Academy DFW · Sat Nov 14 at Steel United TX · Sun Nov 15 vs Atletico Dallas See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | PSG Academy DFW | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 12 | 2.00 | WWWLW | -0.89 | +0.43 | 72% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas · Sat Nov 14 at Atletico Dallas · Sun Nov 15 at BVBIA DFW See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Atletico Dallas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -1.11 | +0.25 | 28% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs BTX SC · Sun Nov 8 vs CF10 Houston FC · Sat Nov 14 vs PSG Academy DFW See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | ALBION SC Dallas (1) | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 5 | 0.63 | LDLLD | -0.43 | +0.78 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at BVBIA DFW · Sat Apr 3 at CF10 Houston FC · Sun Apr 4 at BTX SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | CF10 Houston FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 1 | 0.25 | LDLL | +0.83 | -0.08 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Steel United TX · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Dallas · Sat Mar 20 vs BTX SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Steel United TX | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 52 | -40 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLD | +0.47 | +0.56 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs CF10 Houston FC · Sun Nov 8 vs BTX SC · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Dallas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | ALBION SC Dallas (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.04 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at BTX SC · Tue May 25 vs BVBIA DFW · Tue May 25 vs Atletico Dallas See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.