ALBION SC Dallas

Elite Academy League · Texas U16 · 9 teams · ALBION SC Dallas (all teams)

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3rd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+11 goal diff · 25–14

WWLDWlast 5

79% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6

-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM

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ALBION SC Dallas
3rd · 2.17 PPG

PSG Academy DFW
4th · 2.00 PPG

Harmon Field Park, Herrera Soccer Field 1 ↗

34% 16% 51%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 3.0 for, 3.5 against · 1.16 expected points)

Season so far	ALBION SC Dallas	PSG Academy DFW
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	4-0-2
Points per game	2.17	2.00
Goals for / game	4.2	4.5
Goals against / game	2.3	2.2
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W D L W W	W L W W W
Biggest win	10–5 vs Steel United TX	14–0 vs Steel United TX
Worst loss	1–2 vs BTX SC	1–5 vs BTX SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.01	+1.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.45	-0.89

Common opponents: ALBION SC Dallas (1) — we 3–1, 6–2; they 3–1. Steel United TX — we 10–5; they 6–2, 14–0. CF10 Houston FC — we 2–1; they 2–1. BTX SC — we 1–2; they 1–5. BVBIA DFW — we 3–3; they 1–4.

Game plan

Respect their attack
PSG Academy DFW score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 34%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Harmon Field Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PSG Academy DFW game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Dallas – PSG Academy DFW) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.86 PPG	5th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2
Win 2.29 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.86 PPG	5th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st

79% top 4

21% below the top 4

3.6 average finish

1st 4%
2nd 12%
3rd 35%
4th 29%
5th 15%
6th 5%
7th <1%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	BTX SC	2.50 (+0.33)	1st (2.29)	27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
2	BVBIA DFW	2.33 (+0.16)	2nd (2.28)	25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Dallas to PSG Academy DFW through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

4 even

10 favour them

-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 5th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	PSG Academy DFW 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +14	Away Harmon Field Park	●●●●○ Tough	34%	2–3	1.16	2.02	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:00 AM	Steel United TX 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -40	Away TBD	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	7–2	2.82	2.12	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	Atletico Dallas 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3	Home Beacon Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–2	1.85	2.09	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 12:00 AM	BTX SC 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +9	Away TBD	●●●●○ Tough	26%	2–3	0.93	1.98	Upside
Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM	CF10 Houston FC 7th · 0-1-3 · GD -6	Away TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	3–1	2.02	1.98	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM	PSG Academy DFW 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +14	Home TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	3–3	1.54	1.94	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 12:00 AM	BVBIA DFW 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +19	Home TBD	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–3	1.05	1.87	Upside
Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM	Atletico Dallas 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3	Away TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.52	1.85	Swing game
Tue May 25 08:00 AM	ALBION SC Dallas (2) 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.06	1.86	Swing game
Tue May 25 10:00 AM	ALBION SC Dallas (2) 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away TBD	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	3–2	1.71	1.85	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

BTX SC

2.50

WWWD

+0.84

-0.48

99%

1.7

D	Sun Oct 18	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	7–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Dallas · Sun Nov 8 at Steel United TX · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Dallas (2) See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Steel United TX (8th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	3–2	56%
·	Sun May 2	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA DFW

+19

2.33

WDWWD

-0.11

-0.26

100%

1.7

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	BTX SC (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	6–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Steel United TX (8th)	11–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	4–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas (1) · Sun Nov 15 vs PSG Academy DFW · Sun Nov 22 vs Steel United TX See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	8–1	99%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	3–2	54%
·	Sat May 1	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 1	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 2	at	BTX SC (1st)	2–2	42%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	3–2	68%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	4–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Dallas

+11

2.17

WWLDW

-0.45

+0.19

79%

3.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	6–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BTX SC (1st)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	10–5
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at PSG Academy DFW · Sat Nov 14 at Steel United TX · Sun Nov 15 vs Atletico Dallas See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	2–3	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Steel United TX (8th)	7–2	93%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	BTX SC (1st)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	3–3	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	2–3	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–2	45%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	3–2	64%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	3–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSG Academy DFW

+14

2.00

WWWLW

-0.89

+0.43

75%

3.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	BTX SC (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	14–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Steel United TX (8th)	6–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC Dallas · Sat Nov 14 at Atletico Dallas · Sun Nov 15 at BVBIA DFW See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	3–2	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	3–3	38%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 1	at	BTX SC (1st)	2–3	28%
·	Sun May 2	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat May 8	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	4–1	80%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	3–2	54%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	3–2	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas

2.00

LWW

-1.11

+0.25

28%

5.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs BTX SC · Sun Nov 8 vs CF10 Houston FC · Sat Nov 14 vs PSG Academy DFW See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	BTX SC (1st)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	BTX SC (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sat May 1	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sun May 2	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat May 8	at	Steel United TX (8th)	4–1	84%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	2–2	40%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	2–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Dallas (1)

-10

0.63

LDLLD

-0.43

+0.78

7.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Steel United TX (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	BTX SC (1st)	3–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at BVBIA DFW · Sat Apr 3 at CF10 Houston FC · Sun Apr 4 at BTX SC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	BTX SC (1st)	1–4	7%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 8	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	1–4	10%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	1–3	20%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	2–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CF10 Houston FC

-6

0.25

LDLL

+0.83

-0.08

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	2–6
D	Sun Sep 20	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Steel United TX · Sun Nov 8 at Atletico Dallas · Sat Mar 20 vs BTX SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Steel United TX (8th)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	BTX SC (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	BTX SC (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sun May 2	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	1–3	21%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	1–2	25%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Steel United TX

-40

0.14

LLLLD

+0.47

+0.56

9.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	3–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	0–11
L	Sun Sep 20	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	0–14
L	Sat Sep 12	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	5–10
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	2–6
L	Sat Aug 29	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	0–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs CF10 Houston FC · Sun Nov 8 vs BTX SC · Sat Nov 14 vs ALBION SC Dallas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–4	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	BTX SC (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–7	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–8	1%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	BTX SC (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	1–4	8%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	2–6	5%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (2) (9th)	2–5	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

ALBION SC Dallas (2)

0.00

—

-0.04

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 6 at BTX SC · Tue May 25 vs BVBIA DFW · Tue May 25 vs Atletico Dallas See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 6	at	BTX SC (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Tue May 25	vs	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	2–3	18%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Tue May 25	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Tue May 25	vs	CF10 Houston FC (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Tue May 25	vs	Steel United TX (8th)	6–2	90%
·	Tue May 25	at	Atletico Dallas (5th)	2–2	31%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	3–1	65%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–3	22%
·	Tue May 25	at	BVBIA DFW (2nd)	1–4	11%
·	Tue May 25	vs	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	2–3	30%
·	Tue May 25	vs	ALBION SC Dallas (3rd)	2–3	32%
·	Tue May 25	at	ALBION SC Dallas (1) (6th)	2–2	54%
·	Tue May 25	at	Steel United TX (8th)	5–2	84%
·	Tue May 25	at	PSG Academy DFW (4th)	2–3	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.83 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.