Utah Athletic (North)
Elite Academy League · Southwest Desert U19 · 19 teams · Utah Athletic (North) (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Regional Athletic Complex (RAC), Regional Athletic Complex ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.4 for, 1.5 against · 2.59 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Athletic (North) | BVBIA Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 4.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W | L L L W L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at ALBION SC Utah | 3–0 at AZ SandSharks |
| Worst loss | — | 1–12 vs AZ SandSharks |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.58 | -1.79 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.52 | +0.76 |
Common opponents: ALBION SC Utah — we 5–1; they 2–3.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
BVBIA Arizona concede 4.6/game; worst result 1–12 vs AZ SandSharks.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
BVBIA Arizona have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
AZ SandSharks sit 2nd on 2.17 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above AZ SandSharks on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BVBIA Arizona game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Athletic (North) – BVBIA Arizona) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 8%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 7%
- 12th 7%
- 13th 6%
- 14th 5%
- 15th 4%
- 16th 3%
- 17th 1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.85 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Utah SC | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.32) | 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 2 | AZ SandSharks | 2.17 (+0.17) | 2nd (2.27) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Athletic (North) to BVBIA Arizona through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.45 · 1st hardest of 19
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
BVBIA Arizona 5th · 1-0-4 · GD -16 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex (RAC) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.59 | 2.20 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
AZ SandSharks 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Home Regional Athletic Complex (RAC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.89 | 1.87 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 08:30 PM |
Utah Athletic 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away Lakeside Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.87 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 06:00 PM |
ALBION SC Utah 6th · 1-0-5 · GD -23 |
Home Murray Park Turf Fields · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 1.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 21 06:00 PM |
Inter Utah SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home Murray Park Turf Fields · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 09:00 AM |
Villarreal Las Vegas Academy 19th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 09:00 AM |
ALBION SC Las Vegas 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Aventura Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.55 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM |
Utah Athletic 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +9 |
Home Murray Park Turf Fields · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.16 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Las Vegas 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–2 | 1.88 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 09:00 AM |
Inter Utah SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away Lone Peak High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.85 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
AZ SandSharks 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away Pioneer Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.63 | 1.52 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Inter Utah SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.21 | +0.32 | 94% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AZ SandSharks · Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | AZ SandSharks | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 13 | 2.17 | WLWDW | -1.04 | -0.01 | 98% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Inter Utah SC · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Utah Athletic (North) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -1.52 | +0.45 | 16% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BVBIA Arizona · Sun Oct 25 vs AZ SandSharks · Sat Nov 7 at Utah Athletic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Utah Athletic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 7 | 1.75 | LWDW | -0.27 | -0.07 | 69% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC Utah · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic (North) See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | BVBIA Arizona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | +0.76 | +0.09 | 0% | 17.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Athletic (North) · Sun Oct 25 at Inter Utah SC · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | ALBION SC Utah | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.75 | +0.14 | 0% | 18.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Paso Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic · Sat Nov 14 at Utah Athletic (North) See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | El Paso Surf | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +1.40 | -0.32 | 0% | 15.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at ALBION SC Utah · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Mar 6 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | ALBION SC Boulder County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.15 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 30 vs ALBION SC Denver See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | ALBION SC Denver | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club · Sun Jan 24 at City SC NOCO · Sat Jan 30 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | ALBION SC Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.08 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at BVBIA Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 vs BVBIA Las Vegas · Sun Dec 6 vs Villarreal Las Vegas Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | BVBIA Las Vegas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.15 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sat Dec 5 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 24 vs Utah Athletic See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | City SC NOCO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado United · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Denver · Sat Jan 30 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Colorado Elevation FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.15 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs ALBION SC Boulder County · Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Colorado Rush - COS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at Colorado Rush · Sun Jan 31 at ALBION SC Boulder County See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Colorado Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Colorado Elevation FC · Sat Jan 23 vs Colorado Rush - COS · Sun Jan 24 vs Denver Kickers Sports Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Colorado United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.06 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs City SC NOCO · Sun Jan 24 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Elevation FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Denver Kickers Sports Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at ALBION SC Denver · Sun Jan 24 at Colorado Storm · Sat Jan 30 at City SC NOCO See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Villarreal Las Vegas Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.15 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 6 at ALBION SC Las Vegas · Sun Jan 17 vs Inter Utah SC · Sun Jan 24 vs ALBION SC Las Vegas See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.