El Paso Surf

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Trailside East Park, Trailside East Upper ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.86 expected points)

Common opponents: AZ SandSharks — we 0–3, 1–5; they 1–7. Utah Athletic (North) — we 2–2; they 1–5. Inter Utah SC — we 2–3; they 0–3, 2–5.

• They struggle to score
  ALBION SC Utah average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.4); blanked in 2 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  ALBION SC Utah concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–8 at Utah Athletic.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at AZ SandSharks.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 56% / draw 17% / loss 27%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 12:00 PM at Trailside East Park.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  ALBION SC Utah sit 6th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.25.

  A point moves us above ALBION SC Utah on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC Utah game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (El Paso Surf – ALBION SC Utah) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th
5. 5th <1%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 1%
9. 9th 1%
10. 10th 2%
11. 11th 3%
12. 12th 4%
13. 13th 6%
14. 14th 8%
15. 15th 12%
16. 16th 17%
17. 17th 26%
18. 18th 14%
19. 19th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.39 PPG if we win out).